Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO2 uptake

Anna Maria Virkkala; Brendan M. Rogers; Jennifer D. Watts; Kyle A. Arndt; Stefano Potter; Isabel Wargowsky; Edward A.G. Schuur; Craig R. See; Marguerite Mauritz; Julia Boike; M. Syndonia Bret-Harte; Eleanor J. Burke; Arden Burrell; Namyi Chae; Abhishek Chatterjee; Frederic Chevallier; Torben R. Christensen; Roisin Commane; Han Dolman; Colin W. Edgar; Bo Elberling; Craig A. Emmerton; Eugenie S. Euskirchen; Liang Feng; Mathias Göckede; Achim Grelle; Manuel Helbig; David Holl; Järvi Järveoja; Sergey V. Karsanaev; Hideki Kobayashi; Lars Kutzbach; Junjie Liu; Ingrid T. Luijkx; Efrén López-Blanco; Kyle Lunneberg; Ivan Mammarella; Maija E. Marushchak; Mikhail Mastepanov; Yojiro Matsuura; Trofim C. Maximov; Lutz Merbold; Gesa Meyer; Mats B. Nilsson; Yosuke Niwa; Walter Oechel; Paul I. Palmer; Sang Jong Park; Frans Jan W. Parmentier; Matthias Peichl; Wouter Peters; Roman Petrov; William Quinton; Christian Rödenbeck; Torsten Sachs; Christopher Schulze; Oliver Sonnentag; Vincent L. St. Louis; Eeva Stiina Tuittila; Masahito Ueyama; Andrej Varlagin; Donatella Zona; Susan M. Natali

doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5

Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO₂ uptake

Anna Maria Virkkala^*, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kyle A. Arndt, Stefano Potter, Isabel Wargowsky, Edward A.G. Schuur, Craig R. See, Marguerite Mauritz, Julia Boike, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Eleanor J. Burke, Arden Burrell, Namyi Chae, Abhishek Chatterjee, Frederic Chevallier, Torben R. Christensen, Roisin Commane, Han Dolman, Colin W. EdgarBo Elberling, Craig A. Emmerton, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Liang Feng, Mathias Göckede, Achim Grelle, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Järvi Järveoja, Sergey V. Karsanaev, Hideki Kobayashi, Lars Kutzbach, Junjie Liu, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Efrén López-Blanco, Kyle Lunneberg, Ivan Mammarella, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Yojiro Matsuura, Trofim C. Maximov, Lutz Merbold, Gesa Meyer, Mats B. Nilsson, Yosuke Niwa, Walter Oechel, Paul I. Palmer, Sang Jong Park, Frans Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Wouter Peters, Roman Petrov, William Quinton, Christian Rödenbeck, Torsten Sachs, Christopher Schulze, Oliver Sonnentag, Vincent L. St. Louis, Eeva Stiina Tuittila, Masahito Ueyama, Andrej Varlagin, Donatella Zona, Susan M. Natali

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

The Arctic–Boreal Zone is rapidly warming, impacting its large soil carbon stocks. Here we use a new compilation of terrestrial ecosystem CO₂ fluxes, geospatial datasets and random forest models to show that although the Arctic–Boreal Zone was overall an increasing terrestrial CO₂ sink from 2001 to 2020 (mean ± standard deviation in net ecosystem exchange, −548 ± 140 Tg C yr⁻¹; trend, −14 Tg C yr⁻¹; P < 0.001), more than 30% of the region was a net CO₂ source. Tundra regions may have already started to function on average as CO₂ sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. When fire emissions are factored in, the increasing Arctic–Boreal Zone sink is no longer statistically significant (budget, −319 ± 140 Tg C yr⁻¹; trend, −9 Tg C yr⁻¹), and the permafrost region becomes CO₂ neutral (budget, −24 ± 123 Tg C yr⁻¹; trend, −3 Tg C yr⁻¹), underscoring the importance of fire in this region.

Original language	English
Article number	4621
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	15
Issue	2
Pages (from-to)	188-195
Number of pages	8
ISSN	1758-678X
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5
Publication status	Published - Feb 2025

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Virkkala, A. M., Rogers, B. M., Watts, J. D., Arndt, K. A., Potter, S., Wargowsky, I., Schuur, E. A. G., See, C. R., Mauritz, M., Boike, J., Bret-Harte, M. S., Burke, E. J., Burrell, A., Chae, N., Chatterjee, A., Chevallier, F., Christensen, T. R., Commane, R., Dolman, H., ... Natali, S. M. (2025). Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO₂ uptake. Nature Climate Change, 15(2), 188-195. Article 4621. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5

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title = "Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO2 uptake",

abstract = "The Arctic–Boreal Zone is rapidly warming, impacting its large soil carbon stocks. Here we use a new compilation of terrestrial ecosystem CO2 fluxes, geospatial datasets and random forest models to show that although the Arctic–Boreal Zone was overall an increasing terrestrial CO2 sink from 2001 to 2020 (mean ± standard deviation in net ecosystem exchange, −548 ± 140 Tg C yr−1; trend, −14 Tg C yr−1; P < 0.001), more than 30% of the region was a net CO2 source. Tundra regions may have already started to function on average as CO2 sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. When fire emissions are factored in, the increasing Arctic–Boreal Zone sink is no longer statistically significant (budget, −319 ± 140 Tg C yr−1; trend, −9 Tg C yr−1), and the permafrost region becomes CO2 neutral (budget, −24 ± 123 Tg C yr−1; trend, −3 Tg C yr−1), underscoring the importance of fire in this region.",

author = "Virkkala, {Anna Maria} and Rogers, {Brendan M.} and Watts, {Jennifer D.} and Arndt, {Kyle A.} and Stefano Potter and Isabel Wargowsky and Schuur, {Edward A.G.} and See, {Craig R.} and Marguerite Mauritz and Julia Boike and Bret-Harte, {M. Syndonia} and Burke, {Eleanor J.} and Arden Burrell and Namyi Chae and Abhishek Chatterjee and Frederic Chevallier and Christensen, {Torben R.} and Roisin Commane and Han Dolman and Edgar, {Colin W.} and Bo Elberling and Emmerton, {Craig A.} and Euskirchen, {Eugenie S.} and Liang Feng and Mathias G{\"o}ckede and Achim Grelle and Manuel Helbig and David Holl and J{\"a}rvi J{\"a}rveoja and Karsanaev, {Sergey V.} and Hideki Kobayashi and Lars Kutzbach and Junjie Liu and Luijkx, {Ingrid T.} and Efr{\'e}n L{\'o}pez-Blanco and Kyle Lunneberg and Ivan Mammarella and Marushchak, {Maija E.} and Mikhail Mastepanov and Yojiro Matsuura and Maximov, {Trofim C.} and Lutz Merbold and Gesa Meyer and Nilsson, {Mats B.} and Yosuke Niwa and Walter Oechel and Palmer, {Paul I.} and Park, {Sang Jong} and Parmentier, {Frans Jan W.} and Matthias Peichl and Wouter Peters and Roman Petrov and William Quinton and Christian R{\"o}denbeck and Torsten Sachs and Christopher Schulze and Oliver Sonnentag and {St. Louis}, {Vincent L.} and Tuittila, {Eeva Stiina} and Masahito Ueyama and Andrej Varlagin and Donatella Zona and Natali, {Susan M.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2025.",

year = "2025",

month = feb,

doi = "10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5",

language = "English",

volume = "15",

pages = "188--195",

journal = "Nature Climate Change",

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Virkkala, AM, Rogers, BM, Watts, JD, Arndt, KA, Potter, S, Wargowsky, I, Schuur, EAG, See, CR, Mauritz, M, Boike, J, Bret-Harte, MS, Burke, EJ, Burrell, A, Chae, N, Chatterjee, A, Chevallier, F, Christensen, TR, Commane, R, Dolman, H, Edgar, CW, Elberling, B, Emmerton, CA, Euskirchen, ES, Feng, L, Göckede, M, Grelle, A, Helbig, M, Holl, D, Järveoja, J, Karsanaev, SV, Kobayashi, H, Kutzbach, L, Liu, J, Luijkx, IT, López-Blanco, E, Lunneberg, K, Mammarella, I, Marushchak, ME, Mastepanov, M, Matsuura, Y, Maximov, TC, Merbold, L, Meyer, G, Nilsson, MB, Niwa, Y, Oechel, W, Palmer, PI, Park, SJ, Parmentier, FJW, Peichl, M, Peters, W, Petrov, R, Quinton, W, Rödenbeck, C, Sachs, T, Schulze, C, Sonnentag, O, St. Louis, VL, Tuittila, ES, Ueyama, M, Varlagin, A, Zona, D & Natali, SM 2025, 'Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO₂ uptake', Nature Climate Change, vol. 15, no. 2, 4621, pp. 188-195. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5

Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO₂ uptake. / Virkkala, Anna Maria; Rogers, Brendan M.; Watts, Jennifer D. et al.
In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 15, No. 2, 4621, 02.2025, p. 188-195.

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

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T1 - Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO2 uptake

AU - Virkkala, Anna Maria

AU - Rogers, Brendan M.

AU - Watts, Jennifer D.

AU - Arndt, Kyle A.

AU - Potter, Stefano

AU - Wargowsky, Isabel

AU - Schuur, Edward A.G.

AU - See, Craig R.

AU - Mauritz, Marguerite

AU - Boike, Julia

AU - Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia

AU - Burke, Eleanor J.

AU - Burrell, Arden

AU - Chae, Namyi

AU - Chatterjee, Abhishek

AU - Chevallier, Frederic

AU - Christensen, Torben R.

AU - Commane, Roisin

AU - Dolman, Han

AU - Edgar, Colin W.

AU - Elberling, Bo

AU - Emmerton, Craig A.

AU - Euskirchen, Eugenie S.

AU - Feng, Liang

AU - Göckede, Mathias

AU - Grelle, Achim

AU - Helbig, Manuel

AU - Holl, David

AU - Järveoja, Järvi

AU - Karsanaev, Sergey V.

AU - Kobayashi, Hideki

AU - Kutzbach, Lars

AU - Liu, Junjie

AU - Luijkx, Ingrid T.

AU - López-Blanco, Efrén

AU - Lunneberg, Kyle

AU - Mammarella, Ivan

AU - Marushchak, Maija E.

AU - Mastepanov, Mikhail

AU - Matsuura, Yojiro

AU - Maximov, Trofim C.

AU - Merbold, Lutz

AU - Meyer, Gesa

AU - Nilsson, Mats B.

AU - Niwa, Yosuke

AU - Oechel, Walter

AU - Palmer, Paul I.

AU - Park, Sang Jong

AU - Parmentier, Frans Jan W.

AU - Peichl, Matthias

AU - Peters, Wouter

AU - Petrov, Roman

AU - Quinton, William

AU - Rödenbeck, Christian

AU - Sachs, Torsten

AU - Schulze, Christopher

AU - Sonnentag, Oliver

AU - St. Louis, Vincent L.

AU - Tuittila, Eeva Stiina

AU - Ueyama, Masahito

AU - Varlagin, Andrej

AU - Zona, Donatella

AU - Natali, Susan M.

PY - 2025/2

Y1 - 2025/2

N2 - The Arctic–Boreal Zone is rapidly warming, impacting its large soil carbon stocks. Here we use a new compilation of terrestrial ecosystem CO2 fluxes, geospatial datasets and random forest models to show that although the Arctic–Boreal Zone was overall an increasing terrestrial CO2 sink from 2001 to 2020 (mean ± standard deviation in net ecosystem exchange, −548 ± 140 Tg C yr−1; trend, −14 Tg C yr−1; P < 0.001), more than 30% of the region was a net CO2 source. Tundra regions may have already started to function on average as CO2 sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. When fire emissions are factored in, the increasing Arctic–Boreal Zone sink is no longer statistically significant (budget, −319 ± 140 Tg C yr−1; trend, −9 Tg C yr−1), and the permafrost region becomes CO2 neutral (budget, −24 ± 123 Tg C yr−1; trend, −3 Tg C yr−1), underscoring the importance of fire in this region.

AB - The Arctic–Boreal Zone is rapidly warming, impacting its large soil carbon stocks. Here we use a new compilation of terrestrial ecosystem CO2 fluxes, geospatial datasets and random forest models to show that although the Arctic–Boreal Zone was overall an increasing terrestrial CO2 sink from 2001 to 2020 (mean ± standard deviation in net ecosystem exchange, −548 ± 140 Tg C yr−1; trend, −14 Tg C yr−1; P < 0.001), more than 30% of the region was a net CO2 source. Tundra regions may have already started to function on average as CO2 sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. When fire emissions are factored in, the increasing Arctic–Boreal Zone sink is no longer statistically significant (budget, −319 ± 140 Tg C yr−1; trend, −9 Tg C yr−1), and the permafrost region becomes CO2 neutral (budget, −24 ± 123 Tg C yr−1; trend, −3 Tg C yr−1), underscoring the importance of fire in this region.

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DO - 10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5

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JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 2

M1 - 4621

ER -

Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO₂ uptake

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