Towards a novel biosphere in 2300: rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene

Alejandro Ordonez; Felix Riede; Signe Normand; Jens Christian Svenning

doi:10.1098/rstb.2023.0022

Towards a novel biosphere in 2300: rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene

Alejandro Ordonez^*, Felix Riede, Signe Normand, Jens Christian Svenning

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Abstract

Recent climate change has effectively rewound the climate clock by approximately 120 000 years and is expected to reverse this clock a further 50 Myr by 2100. We aimed to answer two essential questions to better understand the changes in ecosystems worldwide owing to predicted climate change. Firstly, we identify the locations and time frames where novel ecosystems could emerge owing to climate change. Secondly, we aim to determine the extent to which biomes, in their current distribution, will experience an increase in climate-driven ecological novelty. To answer these questions, we analysed three perspectives on how climate changes could result in novel ecosystems in the near term (2100), medium (2200) and long term (2300). These perspectives included identifying areas where climate change could result in new climatic combinations, climate isoclines moving faster than species migration capacity and current environmental patterns being disaggregated. Using these metrics, we determined when and where novel ecosystems could emerge. Our analysis shows that unless rapid mitigation measures are taken, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be over 50% of the land surface by 2100 under all change scenarios. By 2300, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be above 80% of the land surface. At the biome scale, these changes could mean that over 50% of locations could shift towards novel ecosystems, with the majority seeing these changes in the next few decades. Our research shows that the impact of climate change on ecosystems is complex and varied, requiring global action to mitigate and adapt to these changes. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Biodiversity dynamics and stewardship in a transforming biosphere’. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere’.

Original language	English
Article number	20230022
Journal	Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume	379
Issue	1902
ISSN	0962-8436
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2023.0022
Publication status	Published - May 2024

Keywords

climate change
climate change adaptation
climate models
climate velocity
no-analogue climates
novel ecosystems
vulnerabillity
Adaptation, Physiological
Climate Change
Ecosystem
Benchmarking
Biodiversity

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10.1098/rstb.2023.0022

Cite this

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title = "Towards a novel biosphere in 2300: rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene",

abstract = "Recent climate change has effectively rewound the climate clock by approximately 120 000 years and is expected to reverse this clock a further 50 Myr by 2100. We aimed to answer two essential questions to better understand the changes in ecosystems worldwide owing to predicted climate change. Firstly, we identify the locations and time frames where novel ecosystems could emerge owing to climate change. Secondly, we aim to determine the extent to which biomes, in their current distribution, will experience an increase in climate-driven ecological novelty. To answer these questions, we analysed three perspectives on how climate changes could result in novel ecosystems in the near term (2100), medium (2200) and long term (2300). These perspectives included identifying areas where climate change could result in new climatic combinations, climate isoclines moving faster than species migration capacity and current environmental patterns being disaggregated. Using these metrics, we determined when and where novel ecosystems could emerge. Our analysis shows that unless rapid mitigation measures are taken, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be over 50% of the land surface by 2100 under all change scenarios. By 2300, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be above 80% of the land surface. At the biome scale, these changes could mean that over 50% of locations could shift towards novel ecosystems, with the majority seeing these changes in the next few decades. Our research shows that the impact of climate change on ecosystems is complex and varied, requiring global action to mitigate and adapt to these changes. This article is part of the theme issue {\textquoteleft}Biodiversity dynamics and stewardship in a transforming biosphere{\textquoteright}. This article is part of the theme issue {\textquoteleft}Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere{\textquoteright}.",

keywords = "climate change, climate change adaptation, climate models, climate velocity, no-analogue climates, novel ecosystems, vulnerabillity, Adaptation, Physiological, Climate Change, Ecosystem, Benchmarking, Biodiversity",

author = "Alejandro Ordonez and Felix Riede and Signe Normand and Svenning, {Jens Christian}",

year = "2024",

month = may,

doi = "10.1098/rstb.2023.0022",

language = "English",

volume = "379",

journal = "Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences",

issn = "0962-8436",

publisher = "The Royal Society Publishing",

number = "1902",

}

Towards a novel biosphere in 2300: rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene. / Ordonez, Alejandro ; Riede, Felix ; Normand, Signe et al.
In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 379, No. 1902, 20230022, 05.2024.

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Towards a novel biosphere in 2300

T2 - rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene

AU - Ordonez, Alejandro

AU - Riede, Felix

AU - Normand, Signe

AU - Svenning, Jens Christian

PY - 2024/5

Y1 - 2024/5

N2 - Recent climate change has effectively rewound the climate clock by approximately 120 000 years and is expected to reverse this clock a further 50 Myr by 2100. We aimed to answer two essential questions to better understand the changes in ecosystems worldwide owing to predicted climate change. Firstly, we identify the locations and time frames where novel ecosystems could emerge owing to climate change. Secondly, we aim to determine the extent to which biomes, in their current distribution, will experience an increase in climate-driven ecological novelty. To answer these questions, we analysed three perspectives on how climate changes could result in novel ecosystems in the near term (2100), medium (2200) and long term (2300). These perspectives included identifying areas where climate change could result in new climatic combinations, climate isoclines moving faster than species migration capacity and current environmental patterns being disaggregated. Using these metrics, we determined when and where novel ecosystems could emerge. Our analysis shows that unless rapid mitigation measures are taken, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be over 50% of the land surface by 2100 under all change scenarios. By 2300, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be above 80% of the land surface. At the biome scale, these changes could mean that over 50% of locations could shift towards novel ecosystems, with the majority seeing these changes in the next few decades. Our research shows that the impact of climate change on ecosystems is complex and varied, requiring global action to mitigate and adapt to these changes. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Biodiversity dynamics and stewardship in a transforming biosphere’. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere’.

AB - Recent climate change has effectively rewound the climate clock by approximately 120 000 years and is expected to reverse this clock a further 50 Myr by 2100. We aimed to answer two essential questions to better understand the changes in ecosystems worldwide owing to predicted climate change. Firstly, we identify the locations and time frames where novel ecosystems could emerge owing to climate change. Secondly, we aim to determine the extent to which biomes, in their current distribution, will experience an increase in climate-driven ecological novelty. To answer these questions, we analysed three perspectives on how climate changes could result in novel ecosystems in the near term (2100), medium (2200) and long term (2300). These perspectives included identifying areas where climate change could result in new climatic combinations, climate isoclines moving faster than species migration capacity and current environmental patterns being disaggregated. Using these metrics, we determined when and where novel ecosystems could emerge. Our analysis shows that unless rapid mitigation measures are taken, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be over 50% of the land surface by 2100 under all change scenarios. By 2300, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be above 80% of the land surface. At the biome scale, these changes could mean that over 50% of locations could shift towards novel ecosystems, with the majority seeing these changes in the next few decades. Our research shows that the impact of climate change on ecosystems is complex and varied, requiring global action to mitigate and adapt to these changes. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Biodiversity dynamics and stewardship in a transforming biosphere’. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere’.

KW - climate change

KW - climate change adaptation

KW - climate models

KW - climate velocity

KW - no-analogue climates

KW - novel ecosystems

KW - vulnerabillity

KW - Adaptation, Physiological

KW - Climate Change

KW - Ecosystem

KW - Benchmarking

KW - Biodiversity

U2 - 10.1098/rstb.2023.0022

DO - 10.1098/rstb.2023.0022

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 38583475

AN - SCOPUS:85190131985

SN - 0962-8436

VL - 379

JO - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

JF - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

IS - 1902

M1 - 20230022

ER -

Towards a novel biosphere in 2300: rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene

Abstract

Keywords

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