The Past in the Present-The Role of Analogical Reasoning in Epistemic Learning About How to Tackle Complex Policy Problems

TY - JOUR

T1 - The Past in the Present-The Role of Analogical Reasoning in Epistemic Learning About How to Tackle Complex Policy Problems

AU - Beach, Derek

AU - Schäfer, David

AU - Smeets, Sandrino

PY - 2021/5

Y1 - 2021/5

N2 - This article unpacks the role that analogical reasoning plays in epistemic learning, helping actors identify and evaluate what solutions can be used to fix complex, high‐stakes policy problems. Based on recent research in cognitive psychology, we develop a two‐stage analogical reasoning model of learning in which core causal lessons are transferred to the current target case, but where contextual differences are also discounted. The result is the restriction of the set of solutions considered in a policy debate to those that have positive source cases associated with them, and no compelling negative source cases. In the Banking Union case study assessed in this article, we provide evidence that analogical reasoning did play an important role in setting the parameters of the debates. The article concludes with a call for policy analysts to pay more attention to how comparisons with the past structure policy debates.

AB - This article unpacks the role that analogical reasoning plays in epistemic learning, helping actors identify and evaluate what solutions can be used to fix complex, high‐stakes policy problems. Based on recent research in cognitive psychology, we develop a two‐stage analogical reasoning model of learning in which core causal lessons are transferred to the current target case, but where contextual differences are also discounted. The result is the restriction of the set of solutions considered in a policy debate to those that have positive source cases associated with them, and no compelling negative source cases. In the Banking Union case study assessed in this article, we provide evidence that analogical reasoning did play an important role in setting the parameters of the debates. The article concludes with a call for policy analysts to pay more attention to how comparisons with the past structure policy debates.

KW - AMBIGUITY

KW - COMMUNITIES

KW - CRISIS

KW - DIMENSIONS

KW - EXPERIENCE

KW - EXTRAPOLATION

KW - HISTORICAL ANALOGIES

KW - KNOWLEDGE

KW - LESSONS

KW - WICKED PROBLEMS

KW - analogical reasoning

KW - epistemic learning

KW - policy learning

U2 - 10.1111/psj.12372

DO - 10.1111/psj.12372

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0190-292X

VL - 49

SP - 457

EP - 483

JO - Policy Studies Journal

JF - Policy Studies Journal

IS - 2

ER -