Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review
The long shadow of attitudes : differential campaign effects and issue voting in EU referendums. / Beach, Derek; Finke, Daniel.
In: West European Politics, Vol. 44, No. 7, 2021, p. 1482-1505.Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - The long shadow of attitudes
T2 - differential campaign effects and issue voting in EU referendums
AU - Beach, Derek
AU - Finke, Daniel
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Can voters be persuaded by referendum campaigns? This article develops a theoretical model that synthesises the existing literature on campaign effects and issue-voting by arguing that the strength of pre-existing attitudes conditions voter receptivity to campaign arguments, thereby also determining their eventual vote choice. Using original panel data for the 2015 Danish opt-out referendum, there is evidence that attitude strength matters for whether voters are responsive to persuasion during campaigns. The article finds that voters with the most strongly-held attitudes felt well informed and certain about the consequences of the vote even before the start of the campaign, whereas voters with moderately-held attitudes are found to be more prone to believe those campaign arguments that are consistent with their EU attitudes, changing their vote intentions accordingly. Finally, voters with weakly-held attitudes were equally persuadable for the No and the Yes side of the campaign, but they are also the least pre-disposed to pay attention to campaign messages. The conclusions discuss the broader implications of the findings for our understanding of EU referendum campaigns.
AB - Can voters be persuaded by referendum campaigns? This article develops a theoretical model that synthesises the existing literature on campaign effects and issue-voting by arguing that the strength of pre-existing attitudes conditions voter receptivity to campaign arguments, thereby also determining their eventual vote choice. Using original panel data for the 2015 Danish opt-out referendum, there is evidence that attitude strength matters for whether voters are responsive to persuasion during campaigns. The article finds that voters with the most strongly-held attitudes felt well informed and certain about the consequences of the vote even before the start of the campaign, whereas voters with moderately-held attitudes are found to be more prone to believe those campaign arguments that are consistent with their EU attitudes, changing their vote intentions accordingly. Finally, voters with weakly-held attitudes were equally persuadable for the No and the Yes side of the campaign, but they are also the least pre-disposed to pay attention to campaign messages. The conclusions discuss the broader implications of the findings for our understanding of EU referendum campaigns.
KW - CHOICE
KW - COMMUNITY
KW - DUTCH
KW - EU referendums
KW - EUROPEAN-UNION
KW - PARTIES
KW - PUBLIC-OPINION
KW - SKEPTICISM
KW - campaign effects
KW - issue-voting
KW - motivated reasoning
U2 - 10.1080/01402382.2020.1780829
DO - 10.1080/01402382.2020.1780829
M3 - Journal article
VL - 44
SP - 1482
EP - 1505
JO - West European Politics
JF - West European Politics
SN - 0140-2382
IS - 7
ER -