The future depends on what we do today - Projecting Europe's surface water quality into three different future scenarios

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaperJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Standard

The future depends on what we do today - Projecting Europe's surface water quality into three different future scenarios. / Mack, Leoni; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Beklioğlu, Meryem; Bucak, Tuba; Couture, Raoul-Marie; Cremona, Fabien; Ferreira, Maria Teresa ; Hutchins, Michael G.; Mischke, Ute; Molina Navarro, Eugenio; Rankinen, Katri; Venohr, Markus ; Birk, Sebastian .

In: Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 668, No. June, 2019, p. 470-484.

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaperJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Harvard

Mack, L, Andersen, HE, Beklioğlu, M, Bucak, T, Couture, R-M, Cremona, F, Ferreira, MT, Hutchins, MG, Mischke, U, Molina Navarro, E, Rankinen, K, Venohr, M & Birk, S 2019, 'The future depends on what we do today - Projecting Europe's surface water quality into three different future scenarios' Science of the Total Environment, vol. 668, no. June, pp. 470-484. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.251

APA

Mack, L., Andersen, H. E., Beklioğlu, M., Bucak, T., Couture, R-M., Cremona, F., ... Birk, S. (2019). The future depends on what we do today - Projecting Europe's surface water quality into three different future scenarios. Science of the Total Environment, 668(June), 470-484. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.251

CBE

Mack L, Andersen HE, Beklioğlu M, Bucak T, Couture R-M, Cremona F, Ferreira MT, Hutchins MG, Mischke U, Molina Navarro E, Rankinen K, Venohr M, Birk S. 2019. The future depends on what we do today - Projecting Europe's surface water quality into three different future scenarios. Science of the Total Environment. 668(June):470-484. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.251

MLA

Vancouver

Mack L, Andersen HE, Beklioğlu M, Bucak T, Couture R-M, Cremona F et al. The future depends on what we do today - Projecting Europe's surface water quality into three different future scenarios. Science of the Total Environment. 2019;668(June):470-484. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.251

Author

Mack, Leoni ; Andersen, Hans Estrup ; Beklioğlu, Meryem ; Bucak, Tuba ; Couture, Raoul-Marie ; Cremona, Fabien ; Ferreira, Maria Teresa ; Hutchins, Michael G. ; Mischke, Ute ; Molina Navarro, Eugenio ; Rankinen, Katri ; Venohr, Markus ; Birk, Sebastian . / The future depends on what we do today - Projecting Europe's surface water quality into three different future scenarios. In: Science of the Total Environment. 2019 ; Vol. 668, No. June. pp. 470-484.

Bibtex

@article{ae7efc90114b4b71940c66777bf6f3d2,
title = "The future depends on what we do today - Projecting Europe's surface water quality into three different future scenarios",
abstract = "There are infinite possible future scenarios reflecting the impacts of anthropogenic multiple stress on our planet. These impacts include changes in climate and land cover, to which aquatic ecosystems are especially vulnerable. To assess plausible developments of the future state of European surface waters, we considered two climate scenarios and three storylines describing land use, management and anthropogenic development (‘Consensus’ ‘Techno’ and ‘Fragmented’ which in terms of environmental protection represent best-, intermediate- and worst-case, respectively). Three lake and four river basins were selected, representing a spectrum of European conditions through a range of different human impacts and climatic, geographical and biological characteristics. Using process-based and empirical models, freshwater total nitrogen, total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a concentrations were projected for 2030 and 2060. Under current conditions, the water bodies mostly fail good ecological status. In future predictions for the Techno and Fragmented World, concentrations further increased, while concentrations generally declined for the Consensus World. Furthermore, impacts were more severe for rivers than for lakes. Main pressures identified were nutrient inputs from agriculture, land use change, inadequately managed water abstractions and climate change effects. While the basins in the Continental and Atlantic regions were primarily affected by land use changes, in the Mediterranean/Anatolian the main driver was climate change. The Boreal basins showed combined impacts of land use and climate change and clearly reflected the climate-induced future trend of agricultural activities shifting northward. The storylines showed positive effects on ecological status by classical mitigation measures in the Consensus World (e.g. riparian shading), technical improvements in the Techno World (e.g. increasing wastewater treatment efficiency) and agricultural extensification in the Fragmented World. Results emphasize the need for implementing targeted measures to reduce anthropogenic impacts and the importance of having differing levels of ambition for improving the future status of water bodies depending on the societal future to be expected.",
keywords = "Chlorophyll-a, Climate change, Land use change, Multiple stressors, Storylines, Total nitrogen, Total phosphorus, Water quality modeling",
author = "Leoni Mack and Andersen, {Hans Estrup} and Meryem Beklioğlu and Tuba Bucak and Raoul-Marie Couture and Fabien Cremona and Ferreira, {Maria Teresa} and Hutchins, {Michael G.} and Ute Mischke and {Molina Navarro}, Eugenio and Katri Rankinen and Markus Venohr and Sebastian Birk",
year = "2019",
doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.251",
language = "English",
volume = "668",
pages = "470--484",
journal = "Science of the Total Environment",
issn = "0048-9697",
publisher = "Elsevier BV",
number = "June",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The future depends on what we do today - Projecting Europe's surface water quality into three different future scenarios

AU - Mack, Leoni

AU - Andersen, Hans Estrup

AU - Beklioğlu, Meryem

AU - Bucak, Tuba

AU - Couture, Raoul-Marie

AU - Cremona, Fabien

AU - Ferreira, Maria Teresa

AU - Hutchins, Michael G.

AU - Mischke, Ute

AU - Molina Navarro, Eugenio

AU - Rankinen, Katri

AU - Venohr, Markus

AU - Birk, Sebastian

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - There are infinite possible future scenarios reflecting the impacts of anthropogenic multiple stress on our planet. These impacts include changes in climate and land cover, to which aquatic ecosystems are especially vulnerable. To assess plausible developments of the future state of European surface waters, we considered two climate scenarios and three storylines describing land use, management and anthropogenic development (‘Consensus’ ‘Techno’ and ‘Fragmented’ which in terms of environmental protection represent best-, intermediate- and worst-case, respectively). Three lake and four river basins were selected, representing a spectrum of European conditions through a range of different human impacts and climatic, geographical and biological characteristics. Using process-based and empirical models, freshwater total nitrogen, total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a concentrations were projected for 2030 and 2060. Under current conditions, the water bodies mostly fail good ecological status. In future predictions for the Techno and Fragmented World, concentrations further increased, while concentrations generally declined for the Consensus World. Furthermore, impacts were more severe for rivers than for lakes. Main pressures identified were nutrient inputs from agriculture, land use change, inadequately managed water abstractions and climate change effects. While the basins in the Continental and Atlantic regions were primarily affected by land use changes, in the Mediterranean/Anatolian the main driver was climate change. The Boreal basins showed combined impacts of land use and climate change and clearly reflected the climate-induced future trend of agricultural activities shifting northward. The storylines showed positive effects on ecological status by classical mitigation measures in the Consensus World (e.g. riparian shading), technical improvements in the Techno World (e.g. increasing wastewater treatment efficiency) and agricultural extensification in the Fragmented World. Results emphasize the need for implementing targeted measures to reduce anthropogenic impacts and the importance of having differing levels of ambition for improving the future status of water bodies depending on the societal future to be expected.

AB - There are infinite possible future scenarios reflecting the impacts of anthropogenic multiple stress on our planet. These impacts include changes in climate and land cover, to which aquatic ecosystems are especially vulnerable. To assess plausible developments of the future state of European surface waters, we considered two climate scenarios and three storylines describing land use, management and anthropogenic development (‘Consensus’ ‘Techno’ and ‘Fragmented’ which in terms of environmental protection represent best-, intermediate- and worst-case, respectively). Three lake and four river basins were selected, representing a spectrum of European conditions through a range of different human impacts and climatic, geographical and biological characteristics. Using process-based and empirical models, freshwater total nitrogen, total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a concentrations were projected for 2030 and 2060. Under current conditions, the water bodies mostly fail good ecological status. In future predictions for the Techno and Fragmented World, concentrations further increased, while concentrations generally declined for the Consensus World. Furthermore, impacts were more severe for rivers than for lakes. Main pressures identified were nutrient inputs from agriculture, land use change, inadequately managed water abstractions and climate change effects. While the basins in the Continental and Atlantic regions were primarily affected by land use changes, in the Mediterranean/Anatolian the main driver was climate change. The Boreal basins showed combined impacts of land use and climate change and clearly reflected the climate-induced future trend of agricultural activities shifting northward. The storylines showed positive effects on ecological status by classical mitigation measures in the Consensus World (e.g. riparian shading), technical improvements in the Techno World (e.g. increasing wastewater treatment efficiency) and agricultural extensification in the Fragmented World. Results emphasize the need for implementing targeted measures to reduce anthropogenic impacts and the importance of having differing levels of ambition for improving the future status of water bodies depending on the societal future to be expected.

KW - Chlorophyll-a

KW - Climate change

KW - Land use change

KW - Multiple stressors

KW - Storylines

KW - Total nitrogen

KW - Total phosphorus

KW - Water quality modeling

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85062477583&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.251

DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.251

M3 - Journal article

VL - 668

SP - 470

EP - 484

JO - Science of the Total Environment

JF - Science of the Total Environment

SN - 0048-9697

IS - June

ER -