Projects per year
Abstract
The abundance of sensitive plant species in calcareous grasslands is threatened by agricultural intensification with nutrient addition and increased livestock densities as well as by land abandonment. The Hill-Shannon diversity is decreasing, and the species composition of Danish calcareous grassland is generally unstable and is expected to experience further change in the coming years. In order to quantify the effects of selected environmental and land-use factors on the observed variation and changes in the vegetation of calcareous grasslands, large-scale spatial and temporal pin-point plant cover monitoring data are fitted in a structural equation model. The analyzed vegetation data come from 100 Danish sites monitored over an eight-year period. The important sources of measurement and sampling uncertainties have been included using a hierarchical model structure. Furthermore, the measurement and sampling uncertainties are separated from the process uncertainty, which is important when generating ecological predictions that may feed into local conservation management decisions. There were significant negative effects of grazing and nitrogen deposition on the change in cover of sensitive plant species. Whereas the negative effect of nitrogen deposition on the cover of sensitive species was expected, it was surprising that the model results suggest that sensitive species may be subjected to overgrazing by the grazing regimes that are currently applied at protected Danish calcareous grasslands. The standardized regression coefficients suggest that the effects of both grazing and nitrogen deposition are relatively benign compared to the effects of soil type, soil pH and precipitation. The relatively large effect of precipitation is interesting, since it is predicted that the amount of precipitation and its distribution over the seasons will change due to climate change, and the results suggest that climate change may lead to important species compositional changes in calcareous grasslands. The fitted model may be used to quantify the uncertainties when generating ecological forecasting and local adaptive management plans. More specifically, this study suggests that it is relevant to rethink the currently used criteria for vegetation height when assessing the conservation status of calcareous grasslands.
Original language | English |
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Journal | Basic and Applied Ecology |
Volume | 72 |
Pages (from-to) | 22-29 |
Number of pages | 8 |
ISSN | 1439-1791 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Nov 2023 |
Keywords
- Calcareous grassland vegetation
- Hierarchical bayesian models
- Pin-point cover data
- Plant abundance
- Spatial and temporal variation of plant cover
- Structural equation modeling
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LTER-DK - Terrestrisk
Damgaard, C. (Project manager) & Bak, J. L. (Participant)
01/06/2022 → 31/05/2027
Project: Research
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Fagdatacenter for terrestrisk natur
Nygaard, B. (Project manager), Damgaard, C. (Participant), Ejrnæs, R. (Participant) & Bladt, J. (Participant)
01/01/2003 → …
Project: Research
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Adaptive management plans rooted in quantitative ecological predictions of ecosystem processes: putting monitoring data to practical use
Damgaard, C., 22 Mar 2022, In: Environmental Conservation. 49, 1, p. 27 - 32 6 p.Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review
1 Citation (Scopus) -
Use ecological data from national monitoring to help set-up local adaptive management plans
Damgaard, C., 2021.Research output: Contribution to conference › Poster › Research
File
Press/Media
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Nye resultater tyder på, at dyr ‘overgræsser’ i områder med følsomme planter
23/11/2023
1 Media contribution
Press/Media: Press / Media