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Simulating shifting ecological states in a restored, shallow lake with multiple single-model ensembles: Lake Arreskov, Denmark

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We investigated the ability of the process-based, 1-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecosystem lake model GOTM-WET to reproduce the fluctuating dynamics and shifts between turbid and clear water states following restoration in temperate, shallow Lake Arreskov, Denmark. The lake model was calibrated on a comprehensive 12-year dataset with a multiple single-model ensemble approach to address model parameter and performance metric uncertainty. Compared to earlier modelling attempts on this lake, the GOTM-WET model, which enables simulation of water column hydrodynamics such as stratification events and two zooplankton groups, improved the simulation of the maximum chlorophyll a concentrations during cyanobacteria blooms and zooplankton dynamics. However, the timing of shifts between phytoplankton and submerged macrophytes dominance following fish removal was not well reproduced, although both states were simulated. We discuss potential improvements of the model to enhance the ability to simulate the effects of restoration on the food web and ecological states in this and similar lakes.

Original languageEnglish
Article number105501
JournalEnvironmental Modelling and Software
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2022

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors

    Research areas

  • Aquatic ecosystem modelling, General ocean turbulence model, Lake restoration, Shallow lake, Water ecosystems tool, Water quality

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