Shifting burdens: how delayed decarbonisation of road transport affects other sectoral emission reductions

Elisabeth Zeyen; Sina Kalweit; Marta Victoria; Tom Brown

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/adc290

Shifting burdens: how delayed decarbonisation of road transport affects other sectoral emission reductions

Elisabeth Zeyen^*, Sina Kalweit, Marta Victoria, Tom Brown

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Mechanical and Production Engineering - Fluids and Energy
iCLIMATE Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change - iCLIMATE Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Navitas

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Letter › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

In 2022, fuel combustion in road transport accounted for approximately 21% (760 million tonnes) of CO₂ emissions in the European Union (EU). Transport is the only sector with rising emissions, with an increase of 24% compared to 1990. The EU initially aimed to ban new CO₂-emitting cars by 2030 but has since delayed this target to 2035, underscoring the ongoing challenges in the push for rapid decarbonisation. The pace of decarbonisation in this sector will either ease or intensify the pressure on other sectors to stay within the EU’s carbon budget. This paper explores the effects of speeding up or slowing down the transition in road transport. We reveal that a slower decarbonisation path not only drives up system costs by 126 billion €/a (6%) but also demands more than a doubling of the CO₂ price from 137 to 290 €/t CO 2 in 2030 to trigger decarbonisation in other sectors. On the flip side, accelerating the shift to cleaner transport proves to be the most cost-effective strategy, giving room for more gradual changes in the heating and industrial sectors, while reducing the reliance on carbon removal in later years. Earlier mandates than currently envisaged by the EU can avoid stranded assets and save up to 43 billion €/a compared to current policies.

Original language	English
Article number	044044
Journal	Environmental Research Letters
Volume	20
Issue	4
ISSN	1748-9326
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adc290
Publication status	Published - 1 Apr 2025

Keywords

decarbonisation road transport
electric vehicles
energy system modelling
pathway optimisation
sector coupling

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title = "Shifting burdens: how delayed decarbonisation of road transport affects other sectoral emission reductions",

abstract = "In 2022, fuel combustion in road transport accounted for approximately 21\% (760 million tonnes) of CO2 emissions in the European Union (EU). Transport is the only sector with rising emissions, with an increase of 24\% compared to 1990. The EU initially aimed to ban new CO2-emitting cars by 2030 but has since delayed this target to 2035, underscoring the ongoing challenges in the push for rapid decarbonisation. The pace of decarbonisation in this sector will either ease or intensify the pressure on other sectors to stay within the EU{\textquoteright}s carbon budget. This paper explores the effects of speeding up or slowing down the transition in road transport. We reveal that a slower decarbonisation path not only drives up system costs by 126 billion €/a (6\%) but also demands more than a doubling of the CO2 price from 137 to 290 €/t CO 2 in 2030 to trigger decarbonisation in other sectors. On the flip side, accelerating the shift to cleaner transport proves to be the most cost-effective strategy, giving room for more gradual changes in the heating and industrial sectors, while reducing the reliance on carbon removal in later years. Earlier mandates than currently envisaged by the EU can avoid stranded assets and save up to 43 billion €/a compared to current policies.",

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author = "Elisabeth Zeyen and Sina Kalweit and Marta Victoria and Tom Brown",

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N2 - In 2022, fuel combustion in road transport accounted for approximately 21% (760 million tonnes) of CO2 emissions in the European Union (EU). Transport is the only sector with rising emissions, with an increase of 24% compared to 1990. The EU initially aimed to ban new CO2-emitting cars by 2030 but has since delayed this target to 2035, underscoring the ongoing challenges in the push for rapid decarbonisation. The pace of decarbonisation in this sector will either ease or intensify the pressure on other sectors to stay within the EU’s carbon budget. This paper explores the effects of speeding up or slowing down the transition in road transport. We reveal that a slower decarbonisation path not only drives up system costs by 126 billion €/a (6%) but also demands more than a doubling of the CO2 price from 137 to 290 €/t CO 2 in 2030 to trigger decarbonisation in other sectors. On the flip side, accelerating the shift to cleaner transport proves to be the most cost-effective strategy, giving room for more gradual changes in the heating and industrial sectors, while reducing the reliance on carbon removal in later years. Earlier mandates than currently envisaged by the EU can avoid stranded assets and save up to 43 billion €/a compared to current policies.

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Shifting burdens: how delayed decarbonisation of road transport affects other sectoral emission reductions

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