Sensitivity analysis in archaeological simulation: An application to the MERCURY model

TY - JOUR

T1 - Sensitivity analysis in archaeological simulation

T2 - An application to the MERCURY model

AU - Kanters, Hilde

AU - Brughmans, Tom

AU - Romanowska, Iza

N1 - Funding Information: This work was performed in the context of an internship by Kanters, financially supported by the commission of the LUF ( Leids Universiteits Fonds ) International Study Fund ( LISF ) and the Leiden University Trustee Funds . Brughmans’ work was enabled by MSCA-IF SIMREC (grant agreement 791948). IR was supported by Roman EPNet project (European Research Council Advanced Grant - 340828) and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 754513 and The Aarhus University Research Foundation . Funding Information: This work was performed in the context of an internship by Kanters, financially supported by the commission of the LUF (Leids Universiteits Fonds) International Study Fund (LISF) and the Leiden University Trustee Funds. Brughmans? work was enabled by MSCA-IF SIMREC (grant agreement 791948). IR was supported by Roman EPNet project (European Research Council Advanced Grant - 340828) and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sk?odowska-Curie grant agreement No 754513 and The Aarhus University Research Foundation. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2021/8

Y1 - 2021/8

N2 - Computational modelling is increasingly gaining attention in archaeology and related disciplines. With the number of new models growing it is often difficult to evaluate their significance and the generality of the results. This is partially due to the narrow reporting of the model's results, which are often limited to those directly relevant to the research question posed in the first place. Although this is not an issue per se, models, if explored exhaustively, can provide a much wider perspective on the studied system. Sensitivity analysis is a widely recognised model exploration method for assessing the importance of different parameters on the model's behaviour. Such systematic exploration helps in unravelling the dynamics that drive the model and enable researchers to establish how robust the presented results are. Here we present a sensitivity analysis of MERCURY, a previously published archaeological agent-based model. The results show that two out of three of the original conclusions drawn on the basis of selective experiment design stand up to scrutiny. By describing in detail and providing a reusable script with detailed description of all steps of the sensitivity analysis we hope to promote this important model exploration technique among modellers and the wider archaeological audience.

AB - Computational modelling is increasingly gaining attention in archaeology and related disciplines. With the number of new models growing it is often difficult to evaluate their significance and the generality of the results. This is partially due to the narrow reporting of the model's results, which are often limited to those directly relevant to the research question posed in the first place. Although this is not an issue per se, models, if explored exhaustively, can provide a much wider perspective on the studied system. Sensitivity analysis is a widely recognised model exploration method for assessing the importance of different parameters on the model's behaviour. Such systematic exploration helps in unravelling the dynamics that drive the model and enable researchers to establish how robust the presented results are. Here we present a sensitivity analysis of MERCURY, a previously published archaeological agent-based model. The results show that two out of three of the original conclusions drawn on the basis of selective experiment design stand up to scrutiny. By describing in detail and providing a reusable script with detailed description of all steps of the sensitivity analysis we hope to promote this important model exploration technique among modellers and the wider archaeological audience.

KW - Agent-based modelling

KW - Ceramics

KW - Network science

KW - Roman archaeology

KW - Sensitivity analysis

KW - Simulation

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85105749660&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.jasrep.2021.102974

DO - 10.1016/j.jasrep.2021.102974

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85105749660

SN - 2352-409X

VL - 38

JO - Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports

JF - Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports

M1 - 102974

ER -