Department of Management

Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaperJournal articleResearchpeer-review

  • Thomas Lehr, Parmenides Center for the Study of Thinking, Germany
  • Ullrich Lorenz, Umweltbundesamt, Germany
  • Markus Willert, Robert Bosch GmbH, Germany
  • René Rohrbeck
For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawing on behavioural strategy as a theoretical lens, we design a yardstick to study the impact of scenario-based strategizing. We then describe our approach, which includes developing scenarios and alternative strategies separately and supporting the strategy selection through an integrated assessment of the goal-based efficacy and robustness. To facilitate the colla- borative strategizing in teams, we propose a matrix with robustness and efficacy as the two axes, which we call the Parmenides Matrix. We assess the impact of the novel approach by applying it in two cases, at a govern- mental agency (German Environmental Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions).
Original languageEnglish
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Pages (from-to)214-224
Number of pages11
Publication statusPublished - 4 Oct 2017

    Research areas

  • Scenario-based strategizing, Strategic Foresight, Uncertainty, Scenarios, Behavioural Strategy

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