Principal spatiotemporal mismatch and electricity price patterns in a highly decarbonized networked European power system

Leon Joachim Schwenk-Nebbe; Jonas Emil Vind; August Jensen Backhaus; Marta Victoria; Martin Greiner

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2022.104380

Principal spatiotemporal mismatch and electricity price patterns in a highly decarbonized networked European power system

Leon Joachim Schwenk-Nebbe^*, Jonas Emil Vind, August Jensen Backhaus, Marta Victoria, Martin Greiner

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Mechanical and Production Engineering
iCLIMATE Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change
Department of Mechanical and Production Engineering - Fluids and Energy
iCLIMATE Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change - iCLIMATE Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Navitas

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

As the European power system decarbonizes, the variability of the mismatch between renewable generation and demand, as well as that of electricity prices, are expected to increase substantially. Because mismatch and prices show complex temporal and spatial interaction, we propose the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to investigate them. We unveil their main spatiotemporal patterns, examine their cross-correlation, and their dependence on the transmission capacity expansion and CO₂ emissions reduction in a highly renewable cost-optimal electricity model. We find that the majority of variance in both the mismatch and price time series is explained by just three principal components (PCs). Hence, a convenient switch of basis vectors allows expressing the time series as combinations of few components which are shown to have intuitively interpretable structures. Moreover, we find that the temporal coherence between the first three PCs of mismatch and prices are substantially reinforced as the system decarbonizes.

Original language	English
Article number	104380
Journal	iScience
Volume	25
Issue	6
Number of pages	22
ISSN	2589-0042
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.104380
Publication status	Published - Jun 2022

Keywords

Energy Modelling
Energy management
Energy policy
Energy resources

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title = "Principal spatiotemporal mismatch and electricity price patterns in a highly decarbonized networked European power system",

abstract = "As the European power system decarbonizes, the variability of the mismatch between renewable generation and demand, as well as that of electricity prices, are expected to increase substantially. Because mismatch and prices show complex temporal and spatial interaction, we propose the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to investigate them. We unveil their main spatiotemporal patterns, examine their cross-correlation, and their dependence on the transmission capacity expansion and CO2 emissions reduction in a highly renewable cost-optimal electricity model. We find that the majority of variance in both the mismatch and price time series is explained by just three principal components (PCs). Hence, a convenient switch of basis vectors allows expressing the time series as combinations of few components which are shown to have intuitively interpretable structures. Moreover, we find that the temporal coherence between the first three PCs of mismatch and prices are substantially reinforced as the system decarbonizes.",

keywords = "Energy Modelling, Energy management, Energy policy, Energy resources",

author = "Schwenk-Nebbe, \{Leon Joachim\} and Vind, \{Jonas Emil\} and Backhaus, \{August Jensen\} and Marta Victoria and Martin Greiner",

year = "2022",

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language = "English",

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Principal spatiotemporal mismatch and electricity price patterns in a highly decarbonized networked European power system. / Schwenk-Nebbe, Leon Joachim; Vind, Jonas Emil; Backhaus, August Jensen et al.
In: iScience, Vol. 25, No. 6, 104380, 06.2022.

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Principal spatiotemporal mismatch and electricity price patterns in a highly decarbonized networked European power system

AU - Schwenk-Nebbe, Leon Joachim

AU - Vind, Jonas Emil

AU - Backhaus, August Jensen

AU - Victoria, Marta

AU - Greiner, Martin

PY - 2022/6

Y1 - 2022/6

N2 - As the European power system decarbonizes, the variability of the mismatch between renewable generation and demand, as well as that of electricity prices, are expected to increase substantially. Because mismatch and prices show complex temporal and spatial interaction, we propose the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to investigate them. We unveil their main spatiotemporal patterns, examine their cross-correlation, and their dependence on the transmission capacity expansion and CO2 emissions reduction in a highly renewable cost-optimal electricity model. We find that the majority of variance in both the mismatch and price time series is explained by just three principal components (PCs). Hence, a convenient switch of basis vectors allows expressing the time series as combinations of few components which are shown to have intuitively interpretable structures. Moreover, we find that the temporal coherence between the first three PCs of mismatch and prices are substantially reinforced as the system decarbonizes.

AB - As the European power system decarbonizes, the variability of the mismatch between renewable generation and demand, as well as that of electricity prices, are expected to increase substantially. Because mismatch and prices show complex temporal and spatial interaction, we propose the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to investigate them. We unveil their main spatiotemporal patterns, examine their cross-correlation, and their dependence on the transmission capacity expansion and CO2 emissions reduction in a highly renewable cost-optimal electricity model. We find that the majority of variance in both the mismatch and price time series is explained by just three principal components (PCs). Hence, a convenient switch of basis vectors allows expressing the time series as combinations of few components which are shown to have intuitively interpretable structures. Moreover, we find that the temporal coherence between the first three PCs of mismatch and prices are substantially reinforced as the system decarbonizes.

KW - Energy Modelling

KW - Energy management

KW - Energy policy

KW - Energy resources

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DO - 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104380

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SN - 2589-0042

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JO - iScience

JF - iScience

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Principal spatiotemporal mismatch and electricity price patterns in a highly decarbonized networked European power system

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Keywords

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