Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models

Franz Essl; Adrián García-Rodríguez; Bernd Lenzner; Jake M. Alexander; César Capinha; Pierre Gaüzère; Antoine Guisan; Ingolf Kühn; Jonathan Lenoir; David M. Richardson; Sabine B. Rumpf; Jens Christian Svenning; Wilfried Thuiller; Damaris Zurell; Stefan Dullinger

doi:10.1111/jbi.14726

Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models

Franz Essl^*, Adrián García-Rodríguez, Bernd Lenzner, Jake M. Alexander, César Capinha, Pierre Gaüzère, Antoine Guisan, Ingolf Kühn, Jonathan Lenoir, David M. Richardson, Sabine B. Rumpf, Jens Christian Svenning, Wilfried Thuiller, Damaris Zurell, Stefan Dullinger

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Biology - Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO)
Department of Biology - Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change—for example, gradual ‘press’ disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent ‘pulse’ disturbances such as extreme events—affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.

Original language	English
Journal	Journal of Biogeography
Volume	51
Issue	1
Pages (from-to)	89-102
Number of pages	14
ISSN	0305-0270
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.14726
Publication status	Published - Jan 2024

Keywords

climate change
climatic debt
colonization credit
extinction debt
invasion debt
mismatch
niche
projection
species distribution models

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Essl, F., García-Rodríguez, A., Lenzner, B., Alexander, J. M., Capinha, C., Gaüzère, P., Guisan, A., Kühn, I., Lenoir, J., Richardson, D. M., Rumpf, S. B., Svenning, J. C., Thuiller, W., Zurell, D., & Dullinger, S. (2024). Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models. Journal of Biogeography, 51(1), 89-102. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.14726

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title = "Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models",

abstract = "The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change—for example, gradual {\textquoteleft}press{\textquoteright} disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent {\textquoteleft}pulse{\textquoteright} disturbances such as extreme events—affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.",

keywords = "climate change, climatic debt, colonization credit, extinction debt, invasion debt, mismatch, niche, projection, species distribution models",

author = "Franz Essl and Adri{\'a}n Garc{\'i}a-Rodr{\'i}guez and Bernd Lenzner and Alexander, {Jake M.} and C{\'e}sar Capinha and Pierre Ga{\"u}z{\`e}re and Antoine Guisan and Ingolf K{\"u}hn and Jonathan Lenoir and Richardson, {David M.} and Rumpf, {Sabine B.} and Svenning, {Jens Christian} and Wilfried Thuiller and Damaris Zurell and Stefan Dullinger",

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year = "2024",

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doi = "10.1111/jbi.14726",

language = "English",

volume = "51",

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AU - Essl, Franz

AU - García-Rodríguez, Adrián

AU - Lenzner, Bernd

AU - Alexander, Jake M.

AU - Capinha, César

AU - Gaüzère, Pierre

AU - Guisan, Antoine

AU - Kühn, Ingolf

AU - Lenoir, Jonathan

AU - Richardson, David M.

AU - Rumpf, Sabine B.

AU - Svenning, Jens Christian

AU - Thuiller, Wilfried

AU - Zurell, Damaris

AU - Dullinger, Stefan

PY - 2024/1

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N2 - The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change—for example, gradual ‘press’ disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent ‘pulse’ disturbances such as extreme events—affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.

AB - The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change—for example, gradual ‘press’ disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent ‘pulse’ disturbances such as extreme events—affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.

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KW - climatic debt

KW - colonization credit

KW - extinction debt

KW - invasion debt

KW - mismatch

KW - niche

KW - projection

KW - species distribution models

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DO - 10.1111/jbi.14726

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SP - 89

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JO - Journal of Biogeography

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Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models

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Keywords

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