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Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species

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DOI

  • Robin Pouteau, TaiZhou University, Universite de Montpellier
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  • Idoia Biurrun, University of the Basque Country
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  • Caroline Brunel, TaiZhou University, Universite de Montpellier
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  • Milan Chytrý, Masaryk University
  • ,
  • Wayne Dawson, University of Durham
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  • Franz Essl, University of Vienna
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  • Trevor Fristoe, University of Konstanz
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  • Rense Haveman, Central Government Real Estate Agency of the Dutch Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations
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  • Carsten Hobohm, University of Flensburg
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  • Florian Jansen, University of Rostock
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  • Holger Kreft, University of Göttingen
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  • Jonathan Lenoir, Universite de Picardie Jules Verne
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  • Bernd Lenzner, University of Vienna
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  • Carsten Meyer, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig University, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
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  • Jesper Erenskjold Moeslund
  • Jan Pergl, Czech Academy of Sciences
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  • Petr Pyšek, Czech Academy of Sciences, Charles University
  • ,
  • Jens Christian Svenning
  • Wilfried Thuiller, Universite Grenoble Alpes
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  • Patrick Weigelt, University of Göttingen, Campus Institute Data Science
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  • Thomas Wohlgemuth, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
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  • Qiang Yang, University of Konstanz
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  • Mark van Kleunen, TaiZhou University, University of Konstanz

Aims: The rapid increase in the number of species that have naturalized beyond their native range is among the most apparent features of the Anthropocene. How alien species will respond to other processes of future global changes is an emerging concern and remains poorly misunderstood. We therefore ask whether naturalized species will respond to climate and land use change differently than those species not yet naturalized anywhere in the world. Location: Global. Methods: We investigated future changes in the potential alien range of vascular plant species endemic to Europe that are either naturalized (n = 272) or not yet naturalized (1,213) outside of Europe. Potential ranges were estimated based on projections of species distribution models using 20 future climate-change scenarios. We mapped current and future global centres of naturalization risk. We also analysed expected changes in latitudinal, elevational and areal extent of species’ potential alien ranges. Results: We showed a large potential for more worldwide naturalizations of European plants currently and in the future. The centres of naturalization risk for naturalized and non-naturalized plants largely overlapped, and their location did not change much under projected future climates. Nevertheless, naturalized plants had their potential range shifting poleward over larger distances, whereas the non-naturalized ones had their potential elevational ranges shifting further upslope under the most severe climate change scenarios. As a result, climate and land use changes are predicted to shrink the potential alien range of European plants, but less so for already naturalized than for non-naturalized species. Main conclusions: While currently non-naturalized plants originate frequently from mountain ranges or boreal and Mediterranean biomes in Europe, the naturalized ones usually occur at low elevations, close to human centres of activities. As the latter are expected to increase worldwide, this could explain why the potential alien range of already naturalized plants will shrink less.

Original languageEnglish
JournalDiversity and Distributions
Volume27
Issue11
Pages (from-to)2063-2076
Number of pages14
ISSN1366-9516
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2021

    Research areas

  • Alien plant species, biological invasions, climate change, distributional range shift, interacting effect of global changes, land use change, macroecology, migration, non-analogue climate, species distribution model, UNCERTAINTIES, FLORA, CLIMATE-CHANGE, TOPOGRAPHY, SHIFTS, PREDICTION, DISTRIBUTION MODELS, INVASIONS, ECOLOGICAL-NICHE, VEGETATION

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