Population dynamics in complex marine environments – a call for process-based models

Jacob Nabe-Nielsen; Caitlin Kim Frankish; Cara Alyse Gallagher; Volker Grimm

Abstract

Marine predators increasingly experience conditions that are unlike those they have encountered in the past, with more wind farms and ships, altered prey availability and increasing temperatures. When we attempt to predict how populations will respond to these entirely novel conditions, statistical extrapolations are likely to fail. Instead, process-based models can yield robust predictions of how populations respond to multiple stressors. In such models, the energetic status, movements and fitness of individual animals can be simulated to reflect changes in environmental conditions and prey availability, allowing population dynamics to emerge as it does in nature. Here we demonstrate how a model framework built for the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) can predict the cumulative population impacts of wind farms, ship noise, climate change and fisheries. Additionally, we discuss the steps needed to expand the framework to a wider range of marine predators.

Original language	English
Publication date	10 Dec 2024
Publication status	Accepted/In press - 10 Dec 2024
Event	British Ecological Society Annual Meeting - Liverpool, United Kingdom Duration: 10 Dec 2024 → 13 Dec 2024 https://www.britishecologicalsociety.org/events/bes-annual-meeting-2024/

Conference

Conference	British Ecological Society Annual Meeting
Country/Territory	United Kingdom
City	Liverpool
Period	10/12/2024 → 13/12/2024
Internet address	https://www.britishecologicalsociety.org/events/bes-annual-meeting-2024/

Keywords

Agent-based modelling
Process-based models
mechanistic models

Cite this

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title = "Population dynamics in complex marine environments – a call for process-based models",

abstract = "Marine predators increasingly experience conditions that are unlike those they have encountered in the past, with more wind farms and ships, altered prey availability and increasing temperatures. When we attempt to predict how populations will respond to these entirely novel conditions, statistical extrapolations are likely to fail. Instead, process-based models can yield robust predictions of how populations respond to multiple stressors. In such models, the energetic status, movements and fitness of individual animals can be simulated to reflect changes in environmental conditions and prey availability, allowing population dynamics to emerge as it does in nature. Here we demonstrate how a model framework built for the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) can predict the cumulative population impacts of wind farms, ship noise, climate change and fisheries. Additionally, we discuss the steps needed to expand the framework to a wider range of marine predators.",

keywords = "Agent-based modelling, Process-based models, mechanistic models",

author = "Jacob Nabe-Nielsen and Frankish, {Caitlin Kim} and Gallagher, {Cara Alyse} and Volker Grimm",

year = "2024",

month = dec,

day = "10",

language = "English",

note = "British Ecological Society Annual Meeting, BES Annual Meeting ; Conference date: 10-12-2024 Through 13-12-2024",

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TY - ABST

T1 - Population dynamics in complex marine environments – a call for process-based models

AU - Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob

AU - Frankish, Caitlin Kim

AU - Gallagher, Cara Alyse

AU - Grimm, Volker

PY - 2024/12/10

Y1 - 2024/12/10

N2 - Marine predators increasingly experience conditions that are unlike those they have encountered in the past, with more wind farms and ships, altered prey availability and increasing temperatures. When we attempt to predict how populations will respond to these entirely novel conditions, statistical extrapolations are likely to fail. Instead, process-based models can yield robust predictions of how populations respond to multiple stressors. In such models, the energetic status, movements and fitness of individual animals can be simulated to reflect changes in environmental conditions and prey availability, allowing population dynamics to emerge as it does in nature. Here we demonstrate how a model framework built for the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) can predict the cumulative population impacts of wind farms, ship noise, climate change and fisheries. Additionally, we discuss the steps needed to expand the framework to a wider range of marine predators.

AB - Marine predators increasingly experience conditions that are unlike those they have encountered in the past, with more wind farms and ships, altered prey availability and increasing temperatures. When we attempt to predict how populations will respond to these entirely novel conditions, statistical extrapolations are likely to fail. Instead, process-based models can yield robust predictions of how populations respond to multiple stressors. In such models, the energetic status, movements and fitness of individual animals can be simulated to reflect changes in environmental conditions and prey availability, allowing population dynamics to emerge as it does in nature. Here we demonstrate how a model framework built for the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) can predict the cumulative population impacts of wind farms, ship noise, climate change and fisheries. Additionally, we discuss the steps needed to expand the framework to a wider range of marine predators.

KW - Agent-based modelling

KW - Process-based models

KW - mechanistic models

M3 - Conference abstract for conference

T2 - British Ecological Society Annual Meeting

Y2 - 10 December 2024 through 13 December 2024

ER -

Population dynamics in complex marine environments – a call for process-based models

Abstract

Conference

Keywords

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