Picking Funds with Confidence

Niels Strange Grønborg, Asger Lunde, Allan Timmermann*, Russ Wermers

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaperJournal articleResearchpeer-review


We present a new approach to selecting actively managed mutual funds that uses both portfolio holdings and fund return information to eliminate funds with predicted inferior performance through a sequence of pairwise fund comparisons. Our methodology determines both the number of skilled funds and their identities, and locates funds with substantially higher risk-adjusted returns than those identified by conventional alpha-ranking methods. We find strong evidence of time-series variation in both the number of funds identified as superior using our approach, as well as in their performance across different economic states.

Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Financial Economics
Pages (from-to)1-28
Number of pages28
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2021


  • Equity mutual funds
  • Fund confidence set
  • Risk-adjusted performance


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