Phylogenetic age differences in tree assemblages across the Northern Hemisphere increase with long-term climate stability in unstable regions

TY - JOUR

T1 - Phylogenetic age differences in tree assemblages across the Northern Hemisphere increase with long-term climate stability in unstable regions

AU - Feng, Gang

AU - Ma, Ziyu

AU - Benito, Blas M.

AU - Normand, Signe

AU - Ordonez, Alejandro

AU - Jin, Yi

AU - Mao, Lingfeng

AU - Svenning, Jens-Christian

PY - 2017/9

Y1 - 2017/9

N2 - Aims: Long-term climate stability is hypothesized to drive the emergence of species assemblages with large species age differences due to the accumulation of relict species and relatively newly arisen species via reduced extinction and increased speciation. Few studies have addressed these predictions and so far no study has done so for plants across the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we linked Quaternary-scale climate variability to phylogenetic age differences between the oldest and youngest group of species in tree assemblages in 100 km × 100 km grid cells across the Northern Hemisphere to test these predictions. Location: Northern Hemisphere. Methods: Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)-to-present shifts in temperature and precipitation were used as proxies for Quaternary-scale glacial–interglacial climate variability. Simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models were used to assess the relationships between phylogenetic age differences and Quaternary-scale climate variability. Results: We found that phylogenetic age differences overall were largest in China and smallest in Europe, and they declined with increasing temperature instability as predicted, but only in Europe and North America. In China, the relatively mild Quaternary climate changes did not appear to have strongly affected phylogenetic age differences in tree assemblages. Main conclusions: Our results show that phylogenetically diverse assemblages with large phylogenetic age differences among species are associated with relatively high long-term climate stability, with intra-regional links between long-term climate variability and phylogenetic composition especially strong in the more unstable regions. These findings point to future climate change as a key risk to the preservation of the phylogenetically diverse assemblages in regions characterized by relatively high paleoclimate stability, with China as a key example.

AB - Aims: Long-term climate stability is hypothesized to drive the emergence of species assemblages with large species age differences due to the accumulation of relict species and relatively newly arisen species via reduced extinction and increased speciation. Few studies have addressed these predictions and so far no study has done so for plants across the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we linked Quaternary-scale climate variability to phylogenetic age differences between the oldest and youngest group of species in tree assemblages in 100 km × 100 km grid cells across the Northern Hemisphere to test these predictions. Location: Northern Hemisphere. Methods: Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)-to-present shifts in temperature and precipitation were used as proxies for Quaternary-scale glacial–interglacial climate variability. Simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models were used to assess the relationships between phylogenetic age differences and Quaternary-scale climate variability. Results: We found that phylogenetic age differences overall were largest in China and smallest in Europe, and they declined with increasing temperature instability as predicted, but only in Europe and North America. In China, the relatively mild Quaternary climate changes did not appear to have strongly affected phylogenetic age differences in tree assemblages. Main conclusions: Our results show that phylogenetically diverse assemblages with large phylogenetic age differences among species are associated with relatively high long-term climate stability, with intra-regional links between long-term climate variability and phylogenetic composition especially strong in the more unstable regions. These findings point to future climate change as a key risk to the preservation of the phylogenetically diverse assemblages in regions characterized by relatively high paleoclimate stability, with China as a key example.

KW - extinction

KW - Northern Hemisphere

KW - phylogenetic age differences

KW - Quaternary-scale climate variability

KW - speciation

KW - tree assemblage

KW - LATITUDINAL DIVERSITY GRADIENT

KW - SPECIES RICHNESS

KW - FUNCTIONAL DIVERSITY

KW - FLOWERING PLANTS

KW - GLACIAL REFUGIA

KW - GLOBAL PATTERNS

KW - CHINA

KW - FORESTS

KW - EUROPE

KW - DISTRIBUTIONS

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85024406242&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/geb.12613

DO - 10.1111/geb.12613

M3 - Journal article

SN - 1466-822X

VL - 26

SP - 1035

EP - 1042

JO - Global Ecology and Biogeography

JF - Global Ecology and Biogeography

IS - 9

ER -