Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

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DOI

  • Stephen J. Thackeray, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, United Kingdom
  • Peter Henrys, Lancaster University, United Kingdom
  • Deborah Hemming, United Kingdom
  • James R. Bell, United Kingdom
  • Marc S. Botham, United Kingdom
  • Sarah Burthe, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, United Kingdom
  • Pierre Helaouet, Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, United Kingdom
  • David Johns, Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, United Kingdom
  • Ian D. Jones, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, United Kingdom
  • David J. Leech, British Trust for Ornithology, United Kingdom
  • Eleanor B. Mackay
  • ,
  • Dario Massimino, United Kingdom
  • Sian Atkinson
  • ,
  • Philip J. Bacon, Marine Scotland, United Kingdom
  • Tom M. Brereton, Butterfly Conservation, United Kingdom
  • Laurence Carvalho, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, United Kingdom
  • Tim H. Clutton-Brock, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
  • Callan Duck, United Kingdom
  • Martin Edwards, Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, United Kingdom
  • J. Malcolm Elliott, Freshwater Biological Association, United Kingdom
  • Stephen J.G. Hall, United Kingdom
  • Richard Harrington, Rothamsted Insect Survey, United Kingdom
  • James W. Pearce-Higgins, United Kingdom
  • Toke Thomas Høye
  • Loeske E.B. Kruuk, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
  • Josephine M Pemberton, Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
  • Tim H. Sparks, United Kingdom
  • Paul M Thompson
  • ,
  • Ian White
  • ,
  • Ian J. Winfield, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, United Kingdom
  • Sarah Wanless, NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5–2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1–14.8 days earlier on average).
Original languageEnglish
JournalNature
Volume535
Pages (from-to)241–245
ISSN0028-0836
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016

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