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Phase changes and seasonal warming in early instrumental temperature records

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Phase changes and seasonal warming in early instrumental temperature records. / Hillebrand, Eric; Proietti, Tommaso.

In: Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, No. 17, 2017, p. 6795-6821.

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@article{2435af5488244d4792936e0f8960341c,
title = "Phase changes and seasonal warming in early instrumental temperature records",
abstract = "Phase analyses of the annual cycle of monthly temperature time series that date back to the eighteenth century show trending behavior that has been difficult to interpret. Negative trends in the estimated phase have been identified with precession of Earth's axis of rotation, but the implied later onset of seasons is at odds with recent satellite measurements and with the phenological record. Positive trends in the phase and the occurrence of trends of both signs in temperature time series from geographically nearby locations have remained mysterious. This paper shows that there is a mathematical equivalence between trends in phases and seasonally differing warming trends, in particular more intense warming in winters than in summers. Using temperature time series from 16 Northern Hemispheric locations reaching back to the eighteenth century and a statistical model that can estimate the seasonal warming trends, the authors reject the hypothesis that the timing of the seasons in these locations is jointly driven by precession.",
keywords = "Northern Hemisphere, Spectral analysis/models/distribution, Surface observations, Time series",
author = "Eric Hillebrand and Tommaso Proietti",
year = "2017",
doi = "10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0747.1",
language = "English",
volume = "30",
pages = "6795--6821",
journal = "Journal of Climate",
issn = "0894-8755",
publisher = "American Meteorological Society",
number = "17",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Phase changes and seasonal warming in early instrumental temperature records

AU - Hillebrand, Eric

AU - Proietti, Tommaso

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - Phase analyses of the annual cycle of monthly temperature time series that date back to the eighteenth century show trending behavior that has been difficult to interpret. Negative trends in the estimated phase have been identified with precession of Earth's axis of rotation, but the implied later onset of seasons is at odds with recent satellite measurements and with the phenological record. Positive trends in the phase and the occurrence of trends of both signs in temperature time series from geographically nearby locations have remained mysterious. This paper shows that there is a mathematical equivalence between trends in phases and seasonally differing warming trends, in particular more intense warming in winters than in summers. Using temperature time series from 16 Northern Hemispheric locations reaching back to the eighteenth century and a statistical model that can estimate the seasonal warming trends, the authors reject the hypothesis that the timing of the seasons in these locations is jointly driven by precession.

AB - Phase analyses of the annual cycle of monthly temperature time series that date back to the eighteenth century show trending behavior that has been difficult to interpret. Negative trends in the estimated phase have been identified with precession of Earth's axis of rotation, but the implied later onset of seasons is at odds with recent satellite measurements and with the phenological record. Positive trends in the phase and the occurrence of trends of both signs in temperature time series from geographically nearby locations have remained mysterious. This paper shows that there is a mathematical equivalence between trends in phases and seasonally differing warming trends, in particular more intense warming in winters than in summers. Using temperature time series from 16 Northern Hemispheric locations reaching back to the eighteenth century and a statistical model that can estimate the seasonal warming trends, the authors reject the hypothesis that the timing of the seasons in these locations is jointly driven by precession.

KW - Northern Hemisphere

KW - Spectral analysis/models/distribution

KW - Surface observations

KW - Time series

U2 - 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0747.1

DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0747.1

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85027281881

VL - 30

SP - 6795

EP - 6821

JO - Journal of Climate

JF - Journal of Climate

SN - 0894-8755

IS - 17

ER -