On the trajectory of discrimination: A meta-analysis and forecasting survey capturing 44 years of field experiments on gender and hiring decisions

Michael Schaerer; Christilene du Plessis; My Hoang Bao Nguyen; Robbie C.M. van Aert; Leo Tiokhin; Daniël Lakens; Elena Giulia Clemente; Thomas Pfeiffer; Anna Dreber; Magnus Johannesson; Cory J. Clark; Gender Audits Forecasting Collaboration; Eric Luis Uhlmann

doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2023.104280

On the trajectory of discrimination: A meta-analysis and forecasting survey capturing 44 years of field experiments on gender and hiring decisions

Michael Schaerer, Christilene du Plessis, My Hoang Bao Nguyen, Robbie C.M. van Aert, Leo Tiokhin, Daniël Lakens, Elena Giulia Clemente, Thomas Pfeiffer, Anna Dreber, Magnus Johannesson, Cory J. Clark, Gender Audits Forecasting Collaboration, Eric Luis Uhlmann

Department of Management

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Abstract

A preregistered meta-analysis, including 244 effect sizes from 85 field audits and 361,645 individual job applications, tested for gender bias in hiring practices in female-stereotypical and gender-balanced as well as male-stereotypical jobs from 1976 to 2020. A “red team” of independent experts was recruited to increase the rigor and robustness of our meta-analytic approach. A forecasting survey further examined whether laypeople (n = 499 nationally representative adults) and scientists (n = 312) could predict the results. Forecasters correctly anticipated reductions in discrimination against female candidates over time. However, both scientists and laypeople overestimated the continuation of bias against female candidates. Instead, selection bias in favor of male over female candidates was eliminated and, if anything, slightly reversed in sign starting in 2009 for mixed-gender and male-stereotypical jobs in our sample. Forecasters further failed to anticipate that discrimination against male candidates for stereotypically female jobs would remain stable across the decades.

Original language	English
Article number	104280
Journal	Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Volume	179
Number of pages	26
ISSN	0749-5978
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2023.104280
Publication status	Published - Nov 2023

Keywords

Gender
Discrimination
Field experiments
Meta-analysis
Open science
Forecasting

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Schaerer, M., du Plessis, C., Nguyen, M. H. B., van Aert, R. C. M., Tiokhin, L., Lakens, D., Giulia Clemente, E., Pfeiffer, T., Dreber, A., Johannesson, M., Clark, C. J., Gender Audits Forecasting Collaboration, & Luis Uhlmann, E. (2023). On the trajectory of discrimination: A meta-analysis and forecasting survey capturing 44 years of field experiments on gender and hiring decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 179, Article 104280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2023.104280

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title = "On the trajectory of discrimination: A meta-analysis and forecasting survey capturing 44 years of field experiments on gender and hiring decisions",

abstract = "A preregistered meta-analysis, including 244 effect sizes from 85 field audits and 361,645 individual job applications, tested for gender bias in hiring practices in female-stereotypical and gender-balanced as well as male-stereotypical jobs from 1976 to 2020. A “red team” of independent experts was recruited to increase the rigor and robustness of our meta-analytic approach. A forecasting survey further examined whether laypeople (n = 499 nationally representative adults) and scientists (n = 312) could predict the results. Forecasters correctly anticipated reductions in discrimination against female candidates over time. However, both scientists and laypeople overestimated the continuation of bias against female candidates. Instead, selection bias in favor of male over female candidates was eliminated and, if anything, slightly reversed in sign starting in 2009 for mixed-gender and male-stereotypical jobs in our sample. Forecasters further failed to anticipate that discrimination against male candidates for stereotypically female jobs would remain stable across the decades.",

keywords = "Gender, Discrimination, Field experiments, Meta-analysis, Open science, Forecasting",

author = "Michael Schaerer and {du Plessis}, Christilene and Nguyen, {My Hoang Bao} and {van Aert}, {Robbie C.M.} and Leo Tiokhin and Dani{\"e}l Lakens and {Giulia Clemente}, Elena and Thomas Pfeiffer and Anna Dreber and Magnus Johannesson and Clark, {Cory J.} and {Gender Audits Forecasting Collaboration} and {Luis Uhlmann}, Eric and Elb{\ae}k, {Christian T.}",

year = "2023",

month = nov,

doi = "10.1016/j.obhdp.2023.104280",

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Schaerer, M, du Plessis, C, Nguyen, MHB, van Aert, RCM, Tiokhin, L, Lakens, D, Giulia Clemente, E, Pfeiffer, T, Dreber, A, Johannesson, M, Clark, CJ, Gender Audits Forecasting Collaboration & Luis Uhlmann, E 2023, 'On the trajectory of discrimination: A meta-analysis and forecasting survey capturing 44 years of field experiments on gender and hiring decisions', Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, vol. 179, 104280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2023.104280

On the trajectory of discrimination: A meta-analysis and forecasting survey capturing 44 years of field experiments on gender and hiring decisions. / Schaerer, Michael; du Plessis, Christilene; Nguyen, My Hoang Bao et al.
In: Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 179, 104280, 11.2023.

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

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AU - du Plessis, Christilene

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AU - van Aert, Robbie C.M.

AU - Tiokhin, Leo

AU - Lakens, Daniël

AU - Giulia Clemente, Elena

AU - Pfeiffer, Thomas

AU - Dreber, Anna

AU - Johannesson, Magnus

AU - Clark, Cory J.

AU - Gender Audits Forecasting Collaboration

AU - Luis Uhlmann, Eric

AU - Elbæk, Christian T.

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N2 - A preregistered meta-analysis, including 244 effect sizes from 85 field audits and 361,645 individual job applications, tested for gender bias in hiring practices in female-stereotypical and gender-balanced as well as male-stereotypical jobs from 1976 to 2020. A “red team” of independent experts was recruited to increase the rigor and robustness of our meta-analytic approach. A forecasting survey further examined whether laypeople (n = 499 nationally representative adults) and scientists (n = 312) could predict the results. Forecasters correctly anticipated reductions in discrimination against female candidates over time. However, both scientists and laypeople overestimated the continuation of bias against female candidates. Instead, selection bias in favor of male over female candidates was eliminated and, if anything, slightly reversed in sign starting in 2009 for mixed-gender and male-stereotypical jobs in our sample. Forecasters further failed to anticipate that discrimination against male candidates for stereotypically female jobs would remain stable across the decades.

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JF - Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

M1 - 104280

ER -

On the trajectory of discrimination: A meta-analysis and forecasting survey capturing 44 years of field experiments on gender and hiring decisions

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