Modeling carbon and water fluxes in agro-pastoral systems under contrasting climates and different management practices

L. Leolini; S. Costafreda-Aumedes; L. Brilli; M. Galvagno; M. Bindi; G. Argenti; D. Cammarano; E. Bellini; C. Dibari; G. Wohlfahrt; I. Feigenwinter; A. Dal Prà; D. Dalmonech; A. Collalti; E. Cremonese; G. Filippa; N. Staglianò; M. Moriondo

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110486

Modeling carbon and water fluxes in agro-pastoral systems under contrasting climates and different management practices

L. Leolini, S. Costafreda-Aumedes^*, L. Brilli, M. Galvagno, M. Bindi, G. Argenti, D. Cammarano, E. Bellini, C. Dibari, G. Wohlfahrt, I. Feigenwinter, A. Dal Prà, D. Dalmonech, A. Collalti, E. Cremonese, G. Filippa, N. Staglianò, M. Moriondo

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Agroecology - Climate and Water

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Abstract

Grasslands are worldwide spread ecosystems involved in the provision of multiple functional services, including biomass production and carbon storage. However, the increasingly adverse climate and non-optimised farm management are threatening these ecosystems. In this study, the original semi-mechanistic remotely sensed-driven VISTOCK model, which simulates grass growth as limited by thermal and water stress, was modified and integrated with the RothC model to simulate the ecosystem fluxes. The new model (GRASSVISTOCK) showed satisfactory performance in simulating above-ground biomass (AGB) in dry matter (d.m.) and fractional transpirable soil water (FTSW) along Alps (AGB, RMSE = 85.39 g d.m. m⁻²; FTSW, RMSE = 0.21) and Mediterranean (AGB, RMSE = 136.84 g d.m. m⁻²; FTSW, RMSE = 0.13) grasslands. Also, GRASSVISTOCK was able to simulate the net ecosystem exchange (NEE - RMSE = 0.03 Mg C ha⁻¹), the gross primary production (RMSE = 0.04 Mg C ha⁻¹), the ecosystem respiration (RMSE = 0.04 Mg C ha⁻¹) and the evapotranspiration (RMSE = 1.44 mm), where these observations were available (Alps). The model was applied under present and two climate datasets characterised by temperature increase and precipitation decrease (+2 °C temperature, -10 % precipitation) and reference or enriched CO₂ concentration (394 vs. 540.5 ppm) scenarios. The results showed that, while changes in temperature and precipitation alone had a negative impact by increasing NEE (+0.69 Mg C ha⁻¹) and decreasing total biomass (-0.20 Mg d.m. ha⁻¹) in the reference CO₂ scenario, the enriched atmospheric CO₂ concentration partially smoothed the NEE trend (+0.27 Mg C ha⁻¹) and increased total biomass (+0.60 Mg d.m. ha⁻¹) compared to the present period. It is concluded that the GRASSVISTOCK model represents a first step towards an integrated tool for estimating the performance of the agro-pastoral systems in terms of biomass production, water and carbon fluxes, in the face of ongoing climate change.

Original language	English
Article number	110486
Journal	Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Volume	367
ISSN	0168-1923
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110486
Publication status	Published - 15 May 2025

Keywords

Above-ground biomass
Biogeochemical cycles
Crop models
Grasslands

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Leolini, L., Costafreda-Aumedes, S., Brilli, L., Galvagno, M., Bindi, M., Argenti, G., Cammarano, D., Bellini, E., Dibari, C., Wohlfahrt, G., Feigenwinter, I., Dal Prà, A., Dalmonech, D., Collalti, A., Cremonese, E., Filippa, G., Staglianò, N., & Moriondo, M. (2025). Modeling carbon and water fluxes in agro-pastoral systems under contrasting climates and different management practices. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 367, Article 110486. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110486

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title = "Modeling carbon and water fluxes in agro-pastoral systems under contrasting climates and different management practices",

abstract = "Grasslands are worldwide spread ecosystems involved in the provision of multiple functional services, including biomass production and carbon storage. However, the increasingly adverse climate and non-optimised farm management are threatening these ecosystems. In this study, the original semi-mechanistic remotely sensed-driven VISTOCK model, which simulates grass growth as limited by thermal and water stress, was modified and integrated with the RothC model to simulate the ecosystem fluxes. The new model (GRASSVISTOCK) showed satisfactory performance in simulating above-ground biomass (AGB) in dry matter (d.m.) and fractional transpirable soil water (FTSW) along Alps (AGB, RMSE = 85.39 g d.m. m−2; FTSW, RMSE = 0.21) and Mediterranean (AGB, RMSE = 136.84 g d.m. m−2; FTSW, RMSE = 0.13) grasslands. Also, GRASSVISTOCK was able to simulate the net ecosystem exchange (NEE - RMSE = 0.03 Mg C ha−1), the gross primary production (RMSE = 0.04 Mg C ha−1), the ecosystem respiration (RMSE = 0.04 Mg C ha−1) and the evapotranspiration (RMSE = 1.44 mm), where these observations were available (Alps). The model was applied under present and two climate datasets characterised by temperature increase and precipitation decrease (+2 °C temperature, -10 % precipitation) and reference or enriched CO2 concentration (394 vs. 540.5 ppm) scenarios. The results showed that, while changes in temperature and precipitation alone had a negative impact by increasing NEE (+0.69 Mg C ha−1) and decreasing total biomass (-0.20 Mg d.m. ha−1) in the reference CO2 scenario, the enriched atmospheric CO2 concentration partially smoothed the NEE trend (+0.27 Mg C ha−1) and increased total biomass (+0.60 Mg d.m. ha−1) compared to the present period. It is concluded that the GRASSVISTOCK model represents a first step towards an integrated tool for estimating the performance of the agro-pastoral systems in terms of biomass production, water and carbon fluxes, in the face of ongoing climate change.",

keywords = "Above-ground biomass, Biogeochemical cycles, Crop models, Grasslands",

author = "L. Leolini and S. Costafreda-Aumedes and L. Brilli and M. Galvagno and M. Bindi and G. Argenti and D. Cammarano and E. Bellini and C. Dibari and G. Wohlfahrt and I. Feigenwinter and {Dal Pr{\`a}}, A. and D. Dalmonech and A. Collalti and E. Cremonese and G. Filippa and N. Staglian{\`o} and M. Moriondo",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2025",

year = "2025",

month = may,

day = "15",

doi = "10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110486",

language = "English",

volume = "367",

journal = "Agricultural and Forest Meteorology",

issn = "0168-1923",

publisher = "Elsevier B.V.",

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Leolini, L, Costafreda-Aumedes, S, Brilli, L, Galvagno, M, Bindi, M, Argenti, G, Cammarano, D, Bellini, E, Dibari, C, Wohlfahrt, G, Feigenwinter, I, Dal Prà, A, Dalmonech, D, Collalti, A, Cremonese, E, Filippa, G, Staglianò, N & Moriondo, M 2025, 'Modeling carbon and water fluxes in agro-pastoral systems under contrasting climates and different management practices', Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol. 367, 110486. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110486

Modeling carbon and water fluxes in agro-pastoral systems under contrasting climates and different management practices. / Leolini, L.; Costafreda-Aumedes, S.; Brilli, L. et al.
In: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 367, 110486, 15.05.2025.

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modeling carbon and water fluxes in agro-pastoral systems under contrasting climates and different management practices

AU - Leolini, L.

AU - Costafreda-Aumedes, S.

AU - Brilli, L.

AU - Galvagno, M.

AU - Bindi, M.

AU - Argenti, G.

AU - Cammarano, D.

AU - Bellini, E.

AU - Dibari, C.

AU - Wohlfahrt, G.

AU - Feigenwinter, I.

AU - Dal Prà, A.

AU - Dalmonech, D.

AU - Collalti, A.

AU - Cremonese, E.

AU - Filippa, G.

AU - Staglianò, N.

AU - Moriondo, M.

PY - 2025/5/15

Y1 - 2025/5/15

N2 - Grasslands are worldwide spread ecosystems involved in the provision of multiple functional services, including biomass production and carbon storage. However, the increasingly adverse climate and non-optimised farm management are threatening these ecosystems. In this study, the original semi-mechanistic remotely sensed-driven VISTOCK model, which simulates grass growth as limited by thermal and water stress, was modified and integrated with the RothC model to simulate the ecosystem fluxes. The new model (GRASSVISTOCK) showed satisfactory performance in simulating above-ground biomass (AGB) in dry matter (d.m.) and fractional transpirable soil water (FTSW) along Alps (AGB, RMSE = 85.39 g d.m. m−2; FTSW, RMSE = 0.21) and Mediterranean (AGB, RMSE = 136.84 g d.m. m−2; FTSW, RMSE = 0.13) grasslands. Also, GRASSVISTOCK was able to simulate the net ecosystem exchange (NEE - RMSE = 0.03 Mg C ha−1), the gross primary production (RMSE = 0.04 Mg C ha−1), the ecosystem respiration (RMSE = 0.04 Mg C ha−1) and the evapotranspiration (RMSE = 1.44 mm), where these observations were available (Alps). The model was applied under present and two climate datasets characterised by temperature increase and precipitation decrease (+2 °C temperature, -10 % precipitation) and reference or enriched CO2 concentration (394 vs. 540.5 ppm) scenarios. The results showed that, while changes in temperature and precipitation alone had a negative impact by increasing NEE (+0.69 Mg C ha−1) and decreasing total biomass (-0.20 Mg d.m. ha−1) in the reference CO2 scenario, the enriched atmospheric CO2 concentration partially smoothed the NEE trend (+0.27 Mg C ha−1) and increased total biomass (+0.60 Mg d.m. ha−1) compared to the present period. It is concluded that the GRASSVISTOCK model represents a first step towards an integrated tool for estimating the performance of the agro-pastoral systems in terms of biomass production, water and carbon fluxes, in the face of ongoing climate change.

AB - Grasslands are worldwide spread ecosystems involved in the provision of multiple functional services, including biomass production and carbon storage. However, the increasingly adverse climate and non-optimised farm management are threatening these ecosystems. In this study, the original semi-mechanistic remotely sensed-driven VISTOCK model, which simulates grass growth as limited by thermal and water stress, was modified and integrated with the RothC model to simulate the ecosystem fluxes. The new model (GRASSVISTOCK) showed satisfactory performance in simulating above-ground biomass (AGB) in dry matter (d.m.) and fractional transpirable soil water (FTSW) along Alps (AGB, RMSE = 85.39 g d.m. m−2; FTSW, RMSE = 0.21) and Mediterranean (AGB, RMSE = 136.84 g d.m. m−2; FTSW, RMSE = 0.13) grasslands. Also, GRASSVISTOCK was able to simulate the net ecosystem exchange (NEE - RMSE = 0.03 Mg C ha−1), the gross primary production (RMSE = 0.04 Mg C ha−1), the ecosystem respiration (RMSE = 0.04 Mg C ha−1) and the evapotranspiration (RMSE = 1.44 mm), where these observations were available (Alps). The model was applied under present and two climate datasets characterised by temperature increase and precipitation decrease (+2 °C temperature, -10 % precipitation) and reference or enriched CO2 concentration (394 vs. 540.5 ppm) scenarios. The results showed that, while changes in temperature and precipitation alone had a negative impact by increasing NEE (+0.69 Mg C ha−1) and decreasing total biomass (-0.20 Mg d.m. ha−1) in the reference CO2 scenario, the enriched atmospheric CO2 concentration partially smoothed the NEE trend (+0.27 Mg C ha−1) and increased total biomass (+0.60 Mg d.m. ha−1) compared to the present period. It is concluded that the GRASSVISTOCK model represents a first step towards an integrated tool for estimating the performance of the agro-pastoral systems in terms of biomass production, water and carbon fluxes, in the face of ongoing climate change.

KW - Above-ground biomass

KW - Biogeochemical cycles

KW - Crop models

KW - Grasslands

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U2 - 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110486

DO - 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110486

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:105000647842

SN - 0168-1923

VL - 367

JO - Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

JF - Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

M1 - 110486

ER -

Modeling carbon and water fluxes in agro-pastoral systems under contrasting climates and different management practices

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