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We argue that existing methods for the treatment of missing observations in time-varying parameter observation-driven models lead to inconsistent inference. We provide a formal proof of this inconsistency for a Gaussian model with time-varying mean. A Monte Carlo simulation study supports this theoretical result and illustrates how the inconsistency problem extends to score-driven and, more generally, to observation-driven models, which include well-known models for conditional volatility. To overcome the problem of inconsistent inference, we propose a novel estimation procedure based on indirect inference. This easy-to-implement method delivers consistent inference. The asymptotic properties of the new method are formally derived. Our proposed estimation procedure shows a promising performance in a Monte Carlo simulation exercise as well as in an empirical study concerning the measurement of conditional volatility from financial returns data.
Original language | English |
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Journal | Journal of Econometrics |
Volume | 221 |
Issue | 2 |
Pages (from-to) | 542-568 |
Number of pages | 27 |
ISSN | 0304-4076 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Apr 2021 |
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ID: 207965149