Measuring Backsliding with Observables: Observable-to-Subjective Score Mapping

Daniel Weitzel; John Gerring; Daniel Pemstein; Svend Erik Skaaning

doi:10.1017/S1049096523001075

Measuring Backsliding with Observables: Observable-to-Subjective Score Mapping

Daniel Weitzel^*, John Gerring, Daniel Pemstein, Svend Erik Skaaning

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Political Science

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Multiple well-known democracy-rating projects—including Freedom House, Polity, and Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem)—have identified apparent global regression in recent years. These measures rely on partly subjective indicators, which—in principle—could suffer from rater bias. For instance, Little and Meng (2023) argue that shared beliefs driven by the current zeitgeist could lead to shared biases that produce the appearance of democratic backsliding in subjectively coded measures. To assess this argument and the strength of the evidence for global democratic backsliding, we propose an observable-to-subjective score mapping (OSM) methodology that uses only easily observable features of democracy to predict existing indices of democracy. Applying this methodology to three prominent democracy indices, we find evidence of backsliding—but beginning later and not as pronounced as suggested by some of the original indices. Our approach suggests that the Freedom House measure particularly does not track with the recent patterns in observable indicators and that there has been a stasis or—at most—a modest decline in the average level of democracy.

Original language	English
Journal	PS: Political Science & Politics
Volume	57
Issue	2
Pages (from-to)	216-223
Number of pages	8
ISSN	1049-0965
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096523001075
Publication status	Published - 11 Apr 2024

Access to Document

10.1017/S1049096523001075

Cite this

@article{bac45bd1b6c84796b77a1792933159f1,

title = "Measuring Backsliding with Observables: Observable-to-Subjective Score Mapping",

abstract = "Multiple well-known democracy-rating projects—including Freedom House, Polity, and Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem)—have identified apparent global regression in recent years. These measures rely on partly subjective indicators, which—in principle—could suffer from rater bias. For instance, Little and Meng (2023) argue that shared beliefs driven by the current zeitgeist could lead to shared biases that produce the appearance of democratic backsliding in subjectively coded measures. To assess this argument and the strength of the evidence for global democratic backsliding, we propose an observable-to-subjective score mapping (OSM) methodology that uses only easily observable features of democracy to predict existing indices of democracy. Applying this methodology to three prominent democracy indices, we find evidence of backsliding—but beginning later and not as pronounced as suggested by some of the original indices. Our approach suggests that the Freedom House measure particularly does not track with the recent patterns in observable indicators and that there has been a stasis or—at most—a modest decline in the average level of democracy.",

author = "Daniel Weitzel and John Gerring and Daniel Pemstein and Skaaning, {Svend Erik}",

year = "2024",

month = apr,

day = "11",

doi = "10.1017/S1049096523001075",

language = "English",

volume = "57",

pages = "216--223",

journal = "PS: Political Science & Politics",

issn = "1049-0965",

publisher = "Cambridge University Press",

number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Measuring Backsliding with Observables

T2 - Observable-to-Subjective Score Mapping

AU - Weitzel, Daniel

AU - Gerring, John

AU - Pemstein, Daniel

AU - Skaaning, Svend Erik

PY - 2024/4/11

Y1 - 2024/4/11

N2 - Multiple well-known democracy-rating projects—including Freedom House, Polity, and Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem)—have identified apparent global regression in recent years. These measures rely on partly subjective indicators, which—in principle—could suffer from rater bias. For instance, Little and Meng (2023) argue that shared beliefs driven by the current zeitgeist could lead to shared biases that produce the appearance of democratic backsliding in subjectively coded measures. To assess this argument and the strength of the evidence for global democratic backsliding, we propose an observable-to-subjective score mapping (OSM) methodology that uses only easily observable features of democracy to predict existing indices of democracy. Applying this methodology to three prominent democracy indices, we find evidence of backsliding—but beginning later and not as pronounced as suggested by some of the original indices. Our approach suggests that the Freedom House measure particularly does not track with the recent patterns in observable indicators and that there has been a stasis or—at most—a modest decline in the average level of democracy.

AB - Multiple well-known democracy-rating projects—including Freedom House, Polity, and Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem)—have identified apparent global regression in recent years. These measures rely on partly subjective indicators, which—in principle—could suffer from rater bias. For instance, Little and Meng (2023) argue that shared beliefs driven by the current zeitgeist could lead to shared biases that produce the appearance of democratic backsliding in subjectively coded measures. To assess this argument and the strength of the evidence for global democratic backsliding, we propose an observable-to-subjective score mapping (OSM) methodology that uses only easily observable features of democracy to predict existing indices of democracy. Applying this methodology to three prominent democracy indices, we find evidence of backsliding—but beginning later and not as pronounced as suggested by some of the original indices. Our approach suggests that the Freedom House measure particularly does not track with the recent patterns in observable indicators and that there has been a stasis or—at most—a modest decline in the average level of democracy.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85182557535&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1017/S1049096523001075

DO - 10.1017/S1049096523001075

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85182557535

SN - 1049-0965

VL - 57

SP - 216

EP - 223

JO - PS: Political Science & Politics

JF - PS: Political Science & Politics

IS - 2

ER -

Measuring Backsliding with Observables: Observable-to-Subjective Score Mapping

Abstract

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this