Research output: Working paper › Research
Longevity forecasting by socio-economic groups using compositional data analysis. / Kjærgaard, Søren; Ergemen, Yunus Emre; Boucher, Marie-Pier Bergeron; Oeppen, Jim; Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene.
Aarhus : Institut for Økonomi, Aarhus Universitet, 2019.Research output: Working paper › Research
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TY - UNPB
T1 - Longevity forecasting by socio-economic groups using compositional data analysis
AU - Kjærgaard, Søren
AU - Ergemen, Yunus Emre
AU - Boucher, Marie-Pier Bergeron
AU - Oeppen, Jim
AU - Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene
PY - 2019/5/13
Y1 - 2019/5/13
N2 - Several OECD countries have recently implemented an automatic link between the statutory retirement age and life expectancy for the total population to insure sustainability in their pension systems when life expectancy is increasing. Significant mortality differentials are observed across socio-economic groups and future changes in these differentials will determine whether some socio-economic groups drive increases in the retirement age leaving other groups with fewer years in receipt of pensions. We forecast life expectancy by socio-economic groups and compare the forecast performance of competing models using Danish mortality data and find that the most accurate model assumes a common mortality trend. Life expectancy forecasts are used to analyse the consequences of a pension system where the statutory retirement age is increased when total life expectancy is increasing
AB - Several OECD countries have recently implemented an automatic link between the statutory retirement age and life expectancy for the total population to insure sustainability in their pension systems when life expectancy is increasing. Significant mortality differentials are observed across socio-economic groups and future changes in these differentials will determine whether some socio-economic groups drive increases in the retirement age leaving other groups with fewer years in receipt of pensions. We forecast life expectancy by socio-economic groups and compare the forecast performance of competing models using Danish mortality data and find that the most accurate model assumes a common mortality trend. Life expectancy forecasts are used to analyse the consequences of a pension system where the statutory retirement age is increased when total life expectancy is increasing
KW - Compositional data, forecasting, longevity, pension, socioeconomic groups
M3 - Working paper
T3 - CREATES Research Papers
BT - Longevity forecasting by socio-economic groups using compositional data analysis
PB - Institut for Økonomi, Aarhus Universitet
CY - Aarhus
ER -