Department of Economics and Business Economics

Longevity forecasting by socio-economic groups using compositional data analysis

Research output: Working paperResearch

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  • rp19_08

    Final published version, 774 KB, PDF document

  • Søren Kjærgaard, Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Denmark
  • Yunus Emre Ergemen
  • Marie-Pier Bergeron Boucher, Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Denmark
  • Jim Oeppen, Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Denmark
  • Malene Kallestrup-Lamb
Several OECD countries have recently implemented an automatic link between the statutory retirement age and life expectancy for the total population to insure sustainability in their pension systems when life expectancy is increasing. Significant mortality differentials are observed across socio-economic groups and future changes in these differentials will determine whether some socio-economic groups drive increases in the retirement age leaving other groups with fewer years in receipt of pensions. We forecast life expectancy by socio-economic groups and compare the forecast performance of competing models using Danish mortality data and find that the most accurate model assumes a common mortality trend. Life expectancy forecasts are used to analyse the consequences of a pension system where the statutory retirement age is increased when total life expectancy is increasing
Original languageEnglish
Place of publicationAarhus
PublisherInstitut for Økonomi, Aarhus Universitet
Number of pages30
Publication statusPublished - 13 May 2019
SeriesCREATES Research Papers
Number2019-08

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