Longevity forecasting by socio-economic groups using compositional data analysis

TY - JOUR

T1 - Longevity forecasting by socio-economic groups using compositional data analysis

AU - Kjærgaard, Søren

AU - Ergemen, Yunus Emre

AU - Bergeron-Boucher, Marie-Pier

AU - Oeppen, Jim

AU - Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - Several Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries have recently implemented an automatic link between the statutory retirement age and life expectancy for the total population to ensure sustainability in their pension systems due to increasing life expectancy. As significant mortality differentials are observed across socio-economic groups, future changes in these differentials will determine whether some socio-economic groups drive increases in the retirement age, leaving other groups with fewer pensionable years. We forecast life expectancy by socio-economic groups and compare the forecast performance of competing models by using Danish mortality data and find that the most accurate model assumes a common mortality trend. Life expectancy forecasts are used to analyse the consequences of a pension system where the statutory retirement age is increased when total life expectancy is increasing.

AB - Several Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries have recently implemented an automatic link between the statutory retirement age and life expectancy for the total population to ensure sustainability in their pension systems due to increasing life expectancy. As significant mortality differentials are observed across socio-economic groups, future changes in these differentials will determine whether some socio-economic groups drive increases in the retirement age, leaving other groups with fewer pensionable years. We forecast life expectancy by socio-economic groups and compare the forecast performance of competing models by using Danish mortality data and find that the most accurate model assumes a common mortality trend. Life expectancy forecasts are used to analyse the consequences of a pension system where the statutory retirement age is increased when total life expectancy is increasing.

KW - Compositional data

KW - Forecasting

KW - Longevity

KW - Pension

KW - Socio-economic groups

U2 - 10.1111/rssa.12555

DO - 10.1111/rssa.12555

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0964-1998

VL - 183

SP - 1167

EP - 1187

JO - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society)

JF - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society)

IS - 3

ER -