Limitations of a time-lapse blastocyst prediction model: a large multicentre outcome analysis

Kirstine Kirkegaard; Alison Campbell; Inge Agerholm; Ursula Bentin-Ley; Anette Gabrielsen; John Kirk; Shabana Sayed; Hans Jakob Ingerslev

doi:10.1016/j.rbmo.2014.04.011

Limitations of a time-lapse blastocyst prediction model: a large multicentre outcome analysis

Kirstine Kirkegaard, Alison Campbell, Inge Agerholm, Ursula Bentin-Ley, Anette Gabrielsen, John Kirk, Shabana Sayed, Hans Jakob Ingerslev

Department of Clinical Medicine - Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

58 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The goal of embryo selection models is to select embryos with the highest reproductive potential, whilst minimizing the rejection of viable embryos. Ultimately, any embryo selection model must be tested on clinical outcome. We therefore retrospectively tested a published blastocyst prediction model on a large combined set of transferred embryos with known clinical outcome. The model was somewhat effective in that we found a relative increase of 30% for implantation in the model-selected group of embryos. There was, however, a concomitant large rejection of embryos from our test cohort, which actually resulted in pregnancy. This hypothetical experiment highlights the limitations of predicting blastulation only. Crucially, it illustrates that both sensitivity and specificity are important parameters when developing embryo selection models for prospective clinical use.

Original language	English
Journal	Reproductive BioMedicine Online
Volume	29
Issue	2
Pages (from-to)	156-158
Number of pages	3
ISSN	1472-6483
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rbmo.2014.04.011 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rbmo.2014.04.011
Publication status	Published - 1 Aug 2014

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title = "Limitations of a time-lapse blastocyst prediction model: a large multicentre outcome analysis",

abstract = "The goal of embryo selection models is to select embryos with the highest reproductive potential, whilst minimizing the rejection of viable embryos. Ultimately, any embryo selection model must be tested on clinical outcome. We therefore retrospectively tested a published blastocyst prediction model on a large combined set of transferred embryos with known clinical outcome. The model was somewhat effective in that we found a relative increase of 30% for implantation in the model-selected group of embryos. There was, however, a concomitant large rejection of embryos from our test cohort, which actually resulted in pregnancy. This hypothetical experiment highlights the limitations of predicting blastulation only. Crucially, it illustrates that both sensitivity and specificity are important parameters when developing embryo selection models for prospective clinical use.",

author = "Kirstine Kirkegaard and Alison Campbell and Inge Agerholm and Ursula Bentin-Ley and Anette Gabrielsen and John Kirk and Shabana Sayed and Ingerslev, {Hans Jakob}",

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Limitations of a time-lapse blastocyst prediction model: a large multicentre outcome analysis. / Kirkegaard, Kirstine; Campbell, Alison; Agerholm, Inge et al.
In: Reproductive BioMedicine Online, Vol. 29, No. 2, 01.08.2014, p. 156-158.

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Limitations of a time-lapse blastocyst prediction model

T2 - a large multicentre outcome analysis

AU - Kirkegaard, Kirstine

AU - Campbell, Alison

AU - Agerholm, Inge

AU - Bentin-Ley, Ursula

AU - Gabrielsen, Anette

AU - Kirk, John

AU - Sayed, Shabana

AU - Ingerslev, Hans Jakob

PY - 2014/8/1

Y1 - 2014/8/1

N2 - The goal of embryo selection models is to select embryos with the highest reproductive potential, whilst minimizing the rejection of viable embryos. Ultimately, any embryo selection model must be tested on clinical outcome. We therefore retrospectively tested a published blastocyst prediction model on a large combined set of transferred embryos with known clinical outcome. The model was somewhat effective in that we found a relative increase of 30% for implantation in the model-selected group of embryos. There was, however, a concomitant large rejection of embryos from our test cohort, which actually resulted in pregnancy. This hypothetical experiment highlights the limitations of predicting blastulation only. Crucially, it illustrates that both sensitivity and specificity are important parameters when developing embryo selection models for prospective clinical use.

AB - The goal of embryo selection models is to select embryos with the highest reproductive potential, whilst minimizing the rejection of viable embryos. Ultimately, any embryo selection model must be tested on clinical outcome. We therefore retrospectively tested a published blastocyst prediction model on a large combined set of transferred embryos with known clinical outcome. The model was somewhat effective in that we found a relative increase of 30% for implantation in the model-selected group of embryos. There was, however, a concomitant large rejection of embryos from our test cohort, which actually resulted in pregnancy. This hypothetical experiment highlights the limitations of predicting blastulation only. Crucially, it illustrates that both sensitivity and specificity are important parameters when developing embryo selection models for prospective clinical use.

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DO - 10.1016/j.rbmo.2014.04.011

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JO - Reproductive BioMedicine Online

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Limitations of a time-lapse blastocyst prediction model: a large multicentre outcome analysis

Abstract

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