Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia

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DOI

  • Constantin M Zohner, Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland; constantin.zohner@t-online.de.
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  • Lidong Mo, Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
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  • Susanne S Renner, Systematic Botany and Mycology, Department of Biology, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, 80638 Munich, Germany.
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  • Jens-Christian Svenning
  • Yann Vitasse, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
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  • Blas M Benito, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway.
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  • Alejandro Ordonez
  • Frederik Baumgarten, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
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  • Jean-François Bastin, Computational and Applied Vegetation Ecology Lab, Department of Applied Ecology and Environmental Biology, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium., ETH Zürich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
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  • Veronica Sebald, Systematic Botany and Mycology, Department of Biology, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, 80638 Munich, Germany.
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  • Peter B Reich, Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith NSW 2753, Australia., University of Minnesota
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  • Jingjing Liang, Lab of Forest Advanced Computing and Artificial Intelligence, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907.
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  • Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Forest Ecology and Forest Management, Wageningen University and Research, 6700AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
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  • Sergio de-Miguel, Joint Research Unit, Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia CTFC-Centre for Research in Agrotechnology, E25280, Solsona, Spain., University of Lleida
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  • Giorgio Alberti, Institute of BioEconomy, National Research Council, 50019 Florence, Italy., University of Udine
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  • Clara Antón-Fernández, Division of Forestry and Forest Resources NIBIO, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, NO-1431 Ås, Norway.
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  • Radomir Balazy, Department of Geomatics, Forest Research Institute, Sekocin Stary, 05-090 Raszyn, Poland.
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  • Urs-Beat Brändli, Swiss National Forest Inventory, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
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  • Han Y H Chen, Key Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Processes of the Ministry of Education, School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, 350117 Fujian, China., Lakehead University
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  • Chelsea Chisholm, Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
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  • Emil Cienciala, Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, CZ 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic.
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  • Selvadurai Dayanandan, Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Biology Department, Concordia University, Montreal, QC H4B 1R6, Canada.
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  • Tom M Fayle, Institute for Tropical Biology and Conservation, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, 88400 Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia., Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences
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  • Lorenzo Frizzera, Department of Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, 38010 San Michele all'Adige, Trentino, Italy.
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  • Damiano Gianelle, Department of Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, 38010 San Michele all'Adige, Trentino, Italy.
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  • Andrzej M Jagodzinski, Faculty of Forestry, Department of Game Management and Forest Protection, Poznan University of Life Sciences, PL-60-625 Poznan, Poland., Polish Academy of Sciences
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  • Bogdan Jaroszewicz, Białowieża Geobotanical Station, Faculty of Biology, University of Warsaw, PL-17-230 Bialowieza, Poland.
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  • Tommaso Jucker, School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TQ United Kingdom.
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  • Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas, University of Copenhagen
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  • Mohammed Latif Khan, Department of Botany, Dr. Harisingh Gour Vishwavidyalaya University, Sagar, Madhya Pradesh 470003, India.
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  • Hyun Seok Kim, Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, 08826 Seoul, Republic of Korea., National Center for Agro Meteorology, Seoul
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  • Henn Korjus, Institute of Forestry and Rural Engineering, Estonian University of Life Sciences, 51006 Tartu, Estonia.
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  • Vivian Kvist Johannsen, University of Copenhagen
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  • Diana Laarmann, Institute of Forestry and Rural Engineering, Estonian University of Life Sciences, 51006 Tartu, Estonia.
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  • Mait Lang, Estonian University of Life Sciences
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  • Tomasz Zawila-Niedzwiecki, Coordination Centre for Environmental Projects, Polish State Forests, 02-362 Warsaw, Poland.
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  • Pascal A Niklaus, Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland.
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  • Alain Paquette, Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, H3C 3P8 Canada.
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  • Hans Pretzsch, School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany.
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  • Purabi Saikia, Department of Environmental Sciences, Central University of Jharkhand, Brambe, Ranchi, Jharkhand 835205, India.
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  • Peter Schall, Silviculture and Forest Ecology of the Temperate Zones, University of Göttingen, 37077 Göttingen, Germany.
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  • Vladimír Šebeň, National Forest Centre, 96001 Zvolen, Slovak Republic.
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  • Miroslav Svoboda, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Praha 6 Suchdol, 16521, Czech Republic.
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  • Elena Tikhonova, Center for Forest Ecology and Productivity, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117997 Moscow, Russian Federation.
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  • Helder Viana, Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Quinta de Prados, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal., Polytechnic Institute of Viseu
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  • Chunyu Zhang, Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, 100083 Beijing, China.
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  • Xiuhai Zhao, Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, 100083 Beijing, China.
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  • Thomas W Crowther, Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.

Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.

Original languageEnglish
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume117
Issue22
Pages (from-to)12192-12200
Number of pages9
ISSN0027-8424
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2020

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