Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia

Constantin M Zohner; Lidong Mo; Susanne S Renner; Jens-Christian Svenning; Yann Vitasse; Blas M Benito; Alejandro Ordonez; Frederik Baumgarten; Jean-François Bastin; Veronica Sebald; Peter B Reich; Jingjing Liang; Gert-Jan Nabuurs; Sergio de-Miguel; Giorgio Alberti; Clara Antón-Fernández; Radomir Balazy; Urs-Beat Brändli; Han Y H Chen; Chelsea Chisholm; Emil Cienciala; Selvadurai Dayanandan; Tom M Fayle; Lorenzo Frizzera; Damiano Gianelle; Andrzej M Jagodzinski; Bogdan Jaroszewicz; Tommaso Jucker; Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas; Mohammed Latif Khan; Hyun Seok Kim; Henn Korjus; Vivian Kvist Johannsen; Diana Laarmann; Mait Lang; Tomasz Zawila-Niedzwiecki; Pascal A Niklaus; Alain Paquette; Hans Pretzsch; Purabi Saikia; Peter Schall; Vladimír Šebeň; Miroslav Svoboda; Elena Tikhonova; Helder Viana; Chunyu Zhang; Xiuhai Zhao; Thomas W Crowther

doi:10.1073/pnas.1920816117

Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia

Constantin M Zohner, Lidong Mo, Susanne S Renner, Jens-Christian Svenning, Yann Vitasse, Blas M Benito, Alejandro Ordonez, Frederik Baumgarten, Jean-François Bastin, Veronica Sebald, Peter B Reich, Jingjing Liang, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Sergio de-Miguel, Giorgio Alberti, Clara Antón-Fernández, Radomir Balazy, Urs-Beat Brändli, Han Y H Chen, Chelsea ChisholmEmil Cienciala, Selvadurai Dayanandan, Tom M Fayle, Lorenzo Frizzera, Damiano Gianelle, Andrzej M Jagodzinski, Bogdan Jaroszewicz, Tommaso Jucker, Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas, Mohammed Latif Khan, Hyun Seok Kim, Henn Korjus, Vivian Kvist Johannsen, Diana Laarmann, Mait Lang, Tomasz Zawila-Niedzwiecki, Pascal A Niklaus, Alain Paquette, Hans Pretzsch, Purabi Saikia, Peter Schall, Vladimír Šebeň, Miroslav Svoboda, Elena Tikhonova, Helder Viana, Chunyu Zhang, Xiuhai Zhao, Thomas W Crowther

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Abstract

Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.

Original language	English
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Volume	117
Issue	22
Pages (from-to)	12192-12200
Number of pages	9
ISSN	0027-8424
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920816117
Publication status	Published - Jun 2020

Keywords

Climate change
Freezing damage
Late frost
Phenology
Spring leaf-out

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10.1073/pnas.1920816117

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275740/pdf/pnas.201920816.pdf

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Zohner, C. M., Mo, L., Renner, S. S., Svenning, J.-C., Vitasse, Y., Benito, B. M., Ordonez, A., Baumgarten, F., Bastin, J.-F., Sebald, V., Reich, P. B., Liang, J., Nabuurs, G.-J., de-Miguel, S., Alberti, G., Antón-Fernández, C., Balazy, R., Brändli, U.-B., Chen, H. Y. H., ... Crowther, T. W. (2020). Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(22), 12192-12200. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920816117

@article{38b735599ea74006ad048614527fa939,

title = "Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia",

abstract = "Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.",

keywords = "Climate change, Freezing damage, Late frost, Phenology, Spring leaf-out",

author = "Zohner, {Constantin M} and Lidong Mo and Renner, {Susanne S} and Jens-Christian Svenning and Yann Vitasse and Benito, {Blas M} and Alejandro Ordonez and Frederik Baumgarten and Jean-Fran{\c c}ois Bastin and Veronica Sebald and Reich, {Peter B} and Jingjing Liang and Gert-Jan Nabuurs and Sergio de-Miguel and Giorgio Alberti and Clara Ant{\'o}n-Fern{\'a}ndez and Radomir Balazy and Urs-Beat Br{\"a}ndli and Chen, {Han Y H} and Chelsea Chisholm and Emil Cienciala and Selvadurai Dayanandan and Fayle, {Tom M} and Lorenzo Frizzera and Damiano Gianelle and Jagodzinski, {Andrzej M} and Bogdan Jaroszewicz and Tommaso Jucker and Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas and Khan, {Mohammed Latif} and Kim, {Hyun Seok} and Henn Korjus and Johannsen, {Vivian Kvist} and Diana Laarmann and Mait Lang and Tomasz Zawila-Niedzwiecki and Niklaus, {Pascal A} and Alain Paquette and Hans Pretzsch and Purabi Saikia and Peter Schall and Vladim{\'i}r {\v S}ebe{\v n} and Miroslav Svoboda and Elena Tikhonova and Helder Viana and Chunyu Zhang and Xiuhai Zhao and Crowther, {Thomas W}",

year = "2020",

month = jun,

doi = "10.1073/pnas.1920816117",

language = "English",

volume = "117",

pages = "12192--12200",

journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences",

issn = "0027-8424",

publisher = "The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",

number = "22",

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Zohner, CM, Mo, L, Renner, SS, Svenning, J-C, Vitasse, Y, Benito, BM, Ordonez, A, Baumgarten, F, Bastin, J-F, Sebald, V, Reich, PB, Liang, J, Nabuurs, G-J, de-Miguel, S, Alberti, G, Antón-Fernández, C, Balazy, R, Brändli, U-B, Chen, HYH, Chisholm, C, Cienciala, E, Dayanandan, S, Fayle, TM, Frizzera, L, Gianelle, D, Jagodzinski, AM, Jaroszewicz, B, Jucker, T, Kepfer-Rojas, S, Khan, ML, Kim, HS, Korjus, H, Johannsen, VK, Laarmann, D, Lang, M, Zawila-Niedzwiecki, T, Niklaus, PA, Paquette, A, Pretzsch, H, Saikia, P, Schall, P, Šebeň, V, Svoboda, M, Tikhonova, E, Viana, H, Zhang, C, Zhao, X & Crowther, TW 2020, 'Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117, no. 22, pp. 12192-12200. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920816117

Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia. / Zohner, Constantin M; Mo, Lidong; Renner, Susanne S et al.
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 117, No. 22, 06.2020, p. 12192-12200.

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia

AU - Zohner, Constantin M

AU - Mo, Lidong

AU - Renner, Susanne S

AU - Svenning, Jens-Christian

AU - Vitasse, Yann

AU - Benito, Blas M

AU - Ordonez, Alejandro

AU - Baumgarten, Frederik

AU - Bastin, Jean-François

AU - Sebald, Veronica

AU - Reich, Peter B

AU - Liang, Jingjing

AU - Nabuurs, Gert-Jan

AU - de-Miguel, Sergio

AU - Alberti, Giorgio

AU - Antón-Fernández, Clara

AU - Balazy, Radomir

AU - Brändli, Urs-Beat

AU - Chen, Han Y H

AU - Chisholm, Chelsea

AU - Cienciala, Emil

AU - Dayanandan, Selvadurai

AU - Fayle, Tom M

AU - Frizzera, Lorenzo

AU - Gianelle, Damiano

AU - Jagodzinski, Andrzej M

AU - Jaroszewicz, Bogdan

AU - Jucker, Tommaso

AU - Kepfer-Rojas, Sebastian

AU - Khan, Mohammed Latif

AU - Kim, Hyun Seok

AU - Korjus, Henn

AU - Johannsen, Vivian Kvist

AU - Laarmann, Diana

AU - Lang, Mait

AU - Zawila-Niedzwiecki, Tomasz

AU - Niklaus, Pascal A

AU - Paquette, Alain

AU - Pretzsch, Hans

AU - Saikia, Purabi

AU - Schall, Peter

AU - Šebeň, Vladimír

AU - Svoboda, Miroslav

AU - Tikhonova, Elena

AU - Viana, Helder

AU - Zhang, Chunyu

AU - Zhao, Xiuhai

AU - Crowther, Thomas W

PY - 2020/6

Y1 - 2020/6

N2 - Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.

AB - Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.

KW - Climate change

KW - Freezing damage

KW - Late frost

KW - Phenology

KW - Spring leaf-out

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DO - 10.1073/pnas.1920816117

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SN - 0027-8424

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JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

IS - 22

ER -

Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia

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Keywords

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