Impact of anthropogenic emission control in reducing future PM2.5 concentrations and the related oxidative potential across different regions of China

Jiemei Liu; Zhuyun Ye; Jesper H. Christensen; Shikui Dong; Camilla Geels; Jørgen Brandt; Athanasios Nenes; Yuan Yuan; Ulas Im

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170638

Impact of anthropogenic emission control in reducing future PM2.5 concentrations and the related oxidative potential across different regions of China

Jiemei Liu, Zhuyun Ye, Jesper H. Christensen, Shikui Dong, Camilla Geels, Jørgen Brandt, Athanasios Nenes, Yuan Yuan^*, Ulas Im^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

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1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Affected by both future anthropogenic emissions and climate change, future prediction of PM2.5 and its Oxidative Potential (OP) distribution is a significant challenge, especially in developing countries like China. To overcome this challenge, we estimated historical and future PM2.5 concentrations and associated OP using the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) system with meteorological input from WRF weather forecast model. Considering different future socio-economic pathways and emission scenario assumptions, we quantified how the contribution from various anthropogenic emission sectors will change under these scenarios. Results show that compared to the CESMSSP2–4.5CLE scenario (based on moderate radiative forcing and Current Legislation Emission), the CESMSSP1–2.6MFR scenario (based on sustainability development and Maximum Feasible Reductions) is projected to yield greater environmental and health benefits in the future. Under the CESMSSP1–2.6MFR scenario, annual average PM2.5 concentrations (OP) are expected to decrease to 30 μgm−3 (0.8 nmolmin−1m−3) in almost all regions by 2030, which will be 65 67 lower than that in 2010. From a long-term perspective, it is anticipated that OP in the Fen-Wei Plain region will experience the maximum reduction (82.6 from 2010 to 2049. Largely benefiting from the effective control of PM2.5 in the region, it has decreased by 82.1 once emission reduction measures reach a certain level (in 2040), further reductions become less significant. This study also emphasized the significant role of secondary aerosol formation and biomass-burning sources in influencing OP during both historical and future periods. In different scenarios, the reduction range of OP from 2010 to 2049 is estimated to be between 71 5 % by controlling precursor emissions involved in secondary aerosol formation and emissions from biomass burning. Results indicate that strengthening the control of anthropogenic emissions in various regions are key to achieving air quality targets and safeguarding human health in the future.

Original language	English
Journal	Science of the Total Environment
Volume	918
ISSN	0048-9697
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170638
Publication status	Published - Mar 2024

Keywords

Anthropogenic emissions
Future prediction
Oxidative potential
PM concentrations
Scenario assumptions

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10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170638

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@article{1e8acc33f1f847dbbc5326d411a03193,

title = "Impact of anthropogenic emission control in reducing future PM2.5 concentrations and the related oxidative potential across different regions of China",

abstract = "Affected by both future anthropogenic emissions and climate change, future prediction of PM2.5 and its Oxidative Potential (OP) distribution is a significant challenge, especially in developing countries like China. To overcome this challenge, we estimated historical and future PM2.5 concentrations and associated OP using the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) system with meteorological input from WRF weather forecast model. Considering different future socio-economic pathways and emission scenario assumptions, we quantified how the contribution from various anthropogenic emission sectors will change under these scenarios. Results show that compared to the CESMSSP2–4.5CLE scenario (based on moderate radiative forcing and Current Legislation Emission), the CESMSSP1–2.6MFR scenario (based on sustainability development and Maximum Feasible Reductions) is projected to yield greater environmental and health benefits in the future. Under the CESMSSP1–2.6MFR scenario, annual average PM2.5 concentrations (OP) are expected to decrease to 30 μgm−3 (0.8 nmolmin−1m−3) in almost all regions by 2030, which will be 65 67 lower than that in 2010. From a long-term perspective, it is anticipated that OP in the Fen-Wei Plain region will experience the maximum reduction (82.6 from 2010 to 2049. Largely benefiting from the effective control of PM2.5 in the region, it has decreased by 82.1 once emission reduction measures reach a certain level (in 2040), further reductions become less significant. This study also emphasized the significant role of secondary aerosol formation and biomass-burning sources in influencing OP during both historical and future periods. In different scenarios, the reduction range of OP from 2010 to 2049 is estimated to be between 71 5 % by controlling precursor emissions involved in secondary aerosol formation and emissions from biomass burning. Results indicate that strengthening the control of anthropogenic emissions in various regions are key to achieving air quality targets and safeguarding human health in the future.",

keywords = "Anthropogenic emissions, Oxidative potential, Future prediction, PM concentrations, Scenario assumptions, Anthropogenic emissions, Future prediction, Oxidative potential, PM concentrations, Scenario assumptions",

author = "Jiemei Liu and Zhuyun Ye and Christensen, {Jesper H.} and Shikui Dong and Camilla Geels and J{\o}rgen Brandt and Athanasios Nenes and Yuan Yuan and Ulas Im",

year = "2024",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170638",

language = "English",

volume = "918",

journal = "Science of the Total Environment",

issn = "0048-9697",

publisher = "Elsevier B.V.",

}

Impact of anthropogenic emission control in reducing future PM2.5 concentrations and the related oxidative potential across different regions of China. / Liu, Jiemei; Ye, Zhuyun ; Christensen, Jesper H. et al.
In: Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 918, 03.2024.

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impact of anthropogenic emission control in reducing future PM2.5 concentrations and the related oxidative potential across different regions of China

AU - Liu, Jiemei

AU - Ye, Zhuyun

AU - Christensen, Jesper H.

AU - Dong, Shikui

AU - Geels, Camilla

AU - Brandt, Jørgen

AU - Nenes, Athanasios

AU - Yuan, Yuan

AU - Im, Ulas

PY - 2024/3

Y1 - 2024/3

N2 - Affected by both future anthropogenic emissions and climate change, future prediction of PM2.5 and its Oxidative Potential (OP) distribution is a significant challenge, especially in developing countries like China. To overcome this challenge, we estimated historical and future PM2.5 concentrations and associated OP using the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) system with meteorological input from WRF weather forecast model. Considering different future socio-economic pathways and emission scenario assumptions, we quantified how the contribution from various anthropogenic emission sectors will change under these scenarios. Results show that compared to the CESMSSP2–4.5CLE scenario (based on moderate radiative forcing and Current Legislation Emission), the CESMSSP1–2.6MFR scenario (based on sustainability development and Maximum Feasible Reductions) is projected to yield greater environmental and health benefits in the future. Under the CESMSSP1–2.6MFR scenario, annual average PM2.5 concentrations (OP) are expected to decrease to 30 μgm−3 (0.8 nmolmin−1m−3) in almost all regions by 2030, which will be 65 67 lower than that in 2010. From a long-term perspective, it is anticipated that OP in the Fen-Wei Plain region will experience the maximum reduction (82.6 from 2010 to 2049. Largely benefiting from the effective control of PM2.5 in the region, it has decreased by 82.1 once emission reduction measures reach a certain level (in 2040), further reductions become less significant. This study also emphasized the significant role of secondary aerosol formation and biomass-burning sources in influencing OP during both historical and future periods. In different scenarios, the reduction range of OP from 2010 to 2049 is estimated to be between 71 5 % by controlling precursor emissions involved in secondary aerosol formation and emissions from biomass burning. Results indicate that strengthening the control of anthropogenic emissions in various regions are key to achieving air quality targets and safeguarding human health in the future.

AB - Affected by both future anthropogenic emissions and climate change, future prediction of PM2.5 and its Oxidative Potential (OP) distribution is a significant challenge, especially in developing countries like China. To overcome this challenge, we estimated historical and future PM2.5 concentrations and associated OP using the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) system with meteorological input from WRF weather forecast model. Considering different future socio-economic pathways and emission scenario assumptions, we quantified how the contribution from various anthropogenic emission sectors will change under these scenarios. Results show that compared to the CESMSSP2–4.5CLE scenario (based on moderate radiative forcing and Current Legislation Emission), the CESMSSP1–2.6MFR scenario (based on sustainability development and Maximum Feasible Reductions) is projected to yield greater environmental and health benefits in the future. Under the CESMSSP1–2.6MFR scenario, annual average PM2.5 concentrations (OP) are expected to decrease to 30 μgm−3 (0.8 nmolmin−1m−3) in almost all regions by 2030, which will be 65 67 lower than that in 2010. From a long-term perspective, it is anticipated that OP in the Fen-Wei Plain region will experience the maximum reduction (82.6 from 2010 to 2049. Largely benefiting from the effective control of PM2.5 in the region, it has decreased by 82.1 once emission reduction measures reach a certain level (in 2040), further reductions become less significant. This study also emphasized the significant role of secondary aerosol formation and biomass-burning sources in influencing OP during both historical and future periods. In different scenarios, the reduction range of OP from 2010 to 2049 is estimated to be between 71 5 % by controlling precursor emissions involved in secondary aerosol formation and emissions from biomass burning. Results indicate that strengthening the control of anthropogenic emissions in various regions are key to achieving air quality targets and safeguarding human health in the future.

KW - Anthropogenic emissions

KW - Oxidative potential

KW - Future prediction

KW - PM concentrations

KW - Scenario assumptions

KW - Anthropogenic emissions

KW - Future prediction

KW - Oxidative potential

KW - PM concentrations

KW - Scenario assumptions

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U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170638

DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170638

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 38316299

SN - 0048-9697

VL - 918

JO - Science of the Total Environment

JF - Science of the Total Environment

ER -

Impact of anthropogenic emission control in reducing future PM2.5 concentrations and the related oxidative potential across different regions of China

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