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Has the accuracy of energy projections in OECD countries improved since the 1970s?

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Since the 1970s, almost all OECD countries have published projections or forecasts of future energy consumption. By now, three decades later, the actual values of energy consumption are available for the same number of countries and thus a considerable amount of empirical data is available concerning formal hypothesis testing - e.g. whether there have been improvements in forecasting accuracy during this period. Using data for 16 OECD countries, the empirical evidence weakly favours the hypothesis that these countries have made some advances in forecasting accuracy, with regard to projections of energy consumption at the aggregate level and, to a lesser degree, at sectoral levels. Also, in accordance with a priori expectations, the forecasting failure increases with the length of the forecasting horizon.
Original languageEnglish
JournalO P E C Energy Review
Pages (from-to)105-116
Number of pages12
Publication statusPublished - 2001

    Research areas

  • Energy consumption, Forecasting failure, OECD

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