Global warming may turn ice-free areas of Maritime and Peninsular Antarctica into potential soil organic carbon sinks

Danilo C. de Mello; Márcio R. Francelino; Cássio M. Moquedace; Clara G.O. Baldi; Lucas V. Silva; Rafael G. Siqueira; Gustavo V. Veloso; Elpídio I. Fernandes-Filho; André Thomazini; José A.M. Demattê; Tiago O. Ferreira; Lucas Carvalho Gomes; Eduardo O. Senra; Carlos E.G.R. Schaefer

doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01937-z

Global warming may turn ice-free areas of Maritime and Peninsular Antarctica into potential soil organic carbon sinks

Danilo C. de Mello, Márcio R. Francelino^*, Cássio M. Moquedace, Clara G.O. Baldi, Lucas V. Silva, Rafael G. Siqueira, Gustavo V. Veloso, Elpídio I. Fernandes-Filho, André Thomazini, José A.M. Demattê, Tiago O. Ferreira, Lucas Carvalho Gomes, Eduardo O. Senra, Carlos E.G.R. Schaefer

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Agroecology - Soil Physics and Hydropedology

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Abstract

The impact of intensified climate change driven by global warming on the stocks and dynamics of soil organic carbon in Antarctica is currently uncertain. Our objective with this was evaluate the potential repercussions of global warming on soil organic carbon under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Employing a methodology that integrates soil field data, machine learning, and projections of future climate change scenarios for the Maritime and Peninsular Antarctic ice-free areas, we focus on predicting the soil organic carbon within the 0–30 cm soil layer. To achieve this, we utilized one of the largest soil databases of Antarctica, which contains data from 2800 observation sites. In our predictive modeling of SOC stocks, we used relief data and, bioclimatic variables (from Chelsa database) as predictor variables, primarily focusing on temperature, precipitation, and net primary production. The prediction performance of the soil organic carbon stocks model, as measured by concordance correlation coefficient, was 0.52 for the 0-5 cm soil depth, 0.56 for the 5-15 cm depth, and 0.46 for the 15-30 cm depth. Our model reveal that the effects of climate change, primarily changes in temperature and precipitation, are going to increase in soil organic carbon stock (359 ± 146 Mg to 686 ± 197 Mg), indicating that ice-free regions of Maritime and Peninsular Antarctica will tend to function as a carbon sink. However, the magnitude of the soil carbon sink is contingent upon the existing soil organic carbon content and soil depth. The estimated soil organic carbon stocks are controlled mainly by temperature and precipitation, which are interconnected with net primary productivity.

Original language	English
Article number	143
Journal	Communications Earth and Environment
Volume	6
Issue	1
ISSN	2662-4435
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01937-z
Publication status	Published - Feb 2025

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de Mello, D. C., Francelino, M. R., Moquedace, C. M., Baldi, C. G. O., Silva, L. V., Siqueira, R. G., Veloso, G. V., Fernandes-Filho, E. I., Thomazini, A., Demattê, J. A. M., Ferreira, T. O., Gomes, L. C., Senra, E. O., & Schaefer, C. E. G. R. (2025). Global warming may turn ice-free areas of Maritime and Peninsular Antarctica into potential soil organic carbon sinks. Communications Earth and Environment, 6(1), Article 143. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01937-z

@article{8e8320b3e0924fabbd889e179efe8d57,

title = "Global warming may turn ice-free areas of Maritime and Peninsular Antarctica into potential soil organic carbon sinks",

abstract = "The impact of intensified climate change driven by global warming on the stocks and dynamics of soil organic carbon in Antarctica is currently uncertain. Our objective with this was evaluate the potential repercussions of global warming on soil organic carbon under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Employing a methodology that integrates soil field data, machine learning, and projections of future climate change scenarios for the Maritime and Peninsular Antarctic ice-free areas, we focus on predicting the soil organic carbon within the 0–30 cm soil layer. To achieve this, we utilized one of the largest soil databases of Antarctica, which contains data from 2800 observation sites. In our predictive modeling of SOC stocks, we used relief data and, bioclimatic variables (from Chelsa database) as predictor variables, primarily focusing on temperature, precipitation, and net primary production. The prediction performance of the soil organic carbon stocks model, as measured by concordance correlation coefficient, was 0.52 for the 0-5 cm soil depth, 0.56 for the 5-15 cm depth, and 0.46 for the 15-30 cm depth. Our model reveal that the effects of climate change, primarily changes in temperature and precipitation, are going to increase in soil organic carbon stock (359 ± 146 Mg to 686 ± 197 Mg), indicating that ice-free regions of Maritime and Peninsular Antarctica will tend to function as a carbon sink. However, the magnitude of the soil carbon sink is contingent upon the existing soil organic carbon content and soil depth. The estimated soil organic carbon stocks are controlled mainly by temperature and precipitation, which are interconnected with net primary productivity.",

author = "{de Mello}, {Danilo C.} and Francelino, {M{\'a}rcio R.} and Moquedace, {C{\'a}ssio M.} and Baldi, {Clara G.O.} and Silva, {Lucas V.} and Siqueira, {Rafael G.} and Veloso, {Gustavo V.} and Fernandes-Filho, {Elp{\'i}dio I.} and Andr{\'e} Thomazini and Dematt{\^e}, {Jos{\'e} A.M.} and Ferreira, {Tiago O.} and Gomes, {Lucas Carvalho} and Senra, {Eduardo O.} and Schaefer, {Carlos E.G.R.}",

year = "2025",

month = feb,

doi = "10.1038/s43247-024-01937-z",

language = "English",

volume = "6",

journal = "Communications Earth and Environment",

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de Mello, DC, Francelino, MR, Moquedace, CM, Baldi, CGO, Silva, LV, Siqueira, RG, Veloso, GV, Fernandes-Filho, EI, Thomazini, A, Demattê, JAM, Ferreira, TO, Gomes, LC, Senra, EO & Schaefer, CEGR 2025, 'Global warming may turn ice-free areas of Maritime and Peninsular Antarctica into potential soil organic carbon sinks', Communications Earth and Environment, vol. 6, no. 1, 143. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01937-z

Global warming may turn ice-free areas of Maritime and Peninsular Antarctica into potential soil organic carbon sinks. / de Mello, Danilo C.; Francelino, Márcio R.; Moquedace, Cássio M. et al.
In: Communications Earth and Environment, Vol. 6, No. 1, 143, 02.2025.

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global warming may turn ice-free areas of Maritime and Peninsular Antarctica into potential soil organic carbon sinks

AU - de Mello, Danilo C.

AU - Francelino, Márcio R.

AU - Moquedace, Cássio M.

AU - Baldi, Clara G.O.

AU - Silva, Lucas V.

AU - Siqueira, Rafael G.

AU - Veloso, Gustavo V.

AU - Fernandes-Filho, Elpídio I.

AU - Thomazini, André

AU - Demattê, José A.M.

AU - Ferreira, Tiago O.

AU - Gomes, Lucas Carvalho

AU - Senra, Eduardo O.

AU - Schaefer, Carlos E.G.R.

PY - 2025/2

Y1 - 2025/2

N2 - The impact of intensified climate change driven by global warming on the stocks and dynamics of soil organic carbon in Antarctica is currently uncertain. Our objective with this was evaluate the potential repercussions of global warming on soil organic carbon under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Employing a methodology that integrates soil field data, machine learning, and projections of future climate change scenarios for the Maritime and Peninsular Antarctic ice-free areas, we focus on predicting the soil organic carbon within the 0–30 cm soil layer. To achieve this, we utilized one of the largest soil databases of Antarctica, which contains data from 2800 observation sites. In our predictive modeling of SOC stocks, we used relief data and, bioclimatic variables (from Chelsa database) as predictor variables, primarily focusing on temperature, precipitation, and net primary production. The prediction performance of the soil organic carbon stocks model, as measured by concordance correlation coefficient, was 0.52 for the 0-5 cm soil depth, 0.56 for the 5-15 cm depth, and 0.46 for the 15-30 cm depth. Our model reveal that the effects of climate change, primarily changes in temperature and precipitation, are going to increase in soil organic carbon stock (359 ± 146 Mg to 686 ± 197 Mg), indicating that ice-free regions of Maritime and Peninsular Antarctica will tend to function as a carbon sink. However, the magnitude of the soil carbon sink is contingent upon the existing soil organic carbon content and soil depth. The estimated soil organic carbon stocks are controlled mainly by temperature and precipitation, which are interconnected with net primary productivity.

AB - The impact of intensified climate change driven by global warming on the stocks and dynamics of soil organic carbon in Antarctica is currently uncertain. Our objective with this was evaluate the potential repercussions of global warming on soil organic carbon under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Employing a methodology that integrates soil field data, machine learning, and projections of future climate change scenarios for the Maritime and Peninsular Antarctic ice-free areas, we focus on predicting the soil organic carbon within the 0–30 cm soil layer. To achieve this, we utilized one of the largest soil databases of Antarctica, which contains data from 2800 observation sites. In our predictive modeling of SOC stocks, we used relief data and, bioclimatic variables (from Chelsa database) as predictor variables, primarily focusing on temperature, precipitation, and net primary production. The prediction performance of the soil organic carbon stocks model, as measured by concordance correlation coefficient, was 0.52 for the 0-5 cm soil depth, 0.56 for the 5-15 cm depth, and 0.46 for the 15-30 cm depth. Our model reveal that the effects of climate change, primarily changes in temperature and precipitation, are going to increase in soil organic carbon stock (359 ± 146 Mg to 686 ± 197 Mg), indicating that ice-free regions of Maritime and Peninsular Antarctica will tend to function as a carbon sink. However, the magnitude of the soil carbon sink is contingent upon the existing soil organic carbon content and soil depth. The estimated soil organic carbon stocks are controlled mainly by temperature and precipitation, which are interconnected with net primary productivity.

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U2 - 10.1038/s43247-024-01937-z

DO - 10.1038/s43247-024-01937-z

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85218704977

SN - 2662-4435

VL - 6

JO - Communications Earth and Environment

JF - Communications Earth and Environment

IS - 1

M1 - 143

ER -

Global warming may turn ice-free areas of Maritime and Peninsular Antarctica into potential soil organic carbon sinks

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