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Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds

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Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds. / Keogan, Katharine; Daunt, Francis; Wanless, Sarah; Phillips, Richard A.; Walling, Craig A.; Agnew, Philippa; Ainley, David G.; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Ballard, Grant; Barrett, Robert T.; Barton, Kerry J.; Bech, Claus; Becker, Peter; Berglund, Per-Arvid; Bollache, Loïc; Bond, Alexander L.; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Bradley, Russell W.; Burr, Zofia M.; Camphuysen, Kees; Catry, Paulo; Chiaradia, Andre; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Cuthbert, Richard; Dehnhard, Nina; Descamps, Sébastien; Diamond, Tony; Divoky, George; Drummond, Hugh; Dugger, Katie M.; Dunn, Michael J.; Emmerson, Louise; Erikstad, Kjell Einar; Fort, Jérôme; Fraser, William; Genovart, Meritxell; Gilg, Olivier; González-Solís, Jacob; Granadeiro, José Pedro; Grémillet, David; Hansen, Jannik; Hanssen, Sveinn A.; Harris, Mike; Hedd, April; Hinke, Jefferson; Igual, José Manuel; Jahncke, Jaime; Jones, Ian; Kappes, Peter J.; Schmidt, Niels M.

In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, No. 4, 2018, p. 313-318.

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaperJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Harvard

Keogan, K, Daunt, F, Wanless, S, Phillips, RA, Walling, CA, Agnew, P, Ainley, DG, Anker-Nilssen, T, Ballard, G, Barrett, RT, Barton, KJ, Bech, C, Becker, P, Berglund, P-A, Bollache, L, Bond, AL, Bouwhuis, S, Bradley, RW, Burr, ZM, Camphuysen, K, Catry, P, Chiaradia, A, Christensen-Dalsgaard, S, Cuthbert, R, Dehnhard, N, Descamps, S, Diamond, T, Divoky, G, Drummond, H, Dugger, KM, Dunn, MJ, Emmerson, L, Erikstad, KE, Fort, J, Fraser, W, Genovart, M, Gilg, O, González-Solís, J, Granadeiro, JP, Grémillet, D, Hansen, J, Hanssen, SA, Harris, M, Hedd, A, Hinke, J, Igual, JM, Jahncke, J, Jones, I, Kappes, PJ & Schmidt, NM 2018, 'Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds', Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 313-318. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0115-z

APA

Keogan, K., Daunt, F., Wanless, S., Phillips, R. A., Walling, C. A., Agnew, P., Ainley, D. G., Anker-Nilssen, T., Ballard, G., Barrett, R. T., Barton, K. J., Bech, C., Becker, P., Berglund, P-A., Bollache, L., Bond, A. L., Bouwhuis, S., Bradley, R. W., Burr, Z. M., ... Schmidt, N. M. (2018). Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds. Nature Climate Change, 8(4), 313-318. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0115-z

CBE

Keogan K, Daunt F, Wanless S, Phillips RA, Walling CA, Agnew P, Ainley DG, Anker-Nilssen T, Ballard G, Barrett RT, Barton KJ, Bech C, Becker P, Berglund P-A, Bollache L, Bond AL, Bouwhuis S, Bradley RW, Burr ZM, Camphuysen K, Catry P, Chiaradia A, Christensen-Dalsgaard S, Cuthbert R, Dehnhard N, Descamps S, Diamond T, Divoky G, Drummond H, Dugger KM, Dunn MJ, Emmerson L, Erikstad KE, Fort J, Fraser W, Genovart M, Gilg O, González-Solís J, Granadeiro JP, Grémillet D, Hansen J, Hanssen SA, Harris M, Hedd A, Hinke J, Igual JM, Jahncke J, Jones I, Kappes PJ, Schmidt NM. 2018. Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds. Nature Climate Change. 8(4):313-318. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0115-z

MLA

Vancouver

Keogan K, Daunt F, Wanless S, Phillips RA, Walling CA, Agnew P et al. Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds. Nature Climate Change. 2018;8(4):313-318. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0115-z

Author

Keogan, Katharine ; Daunt, Francis ; Wanless, Sarah ; Phillips, Richard A. ; Walling, Craig A. ; Agnew, Philippa ; Ainley, David G. ; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho ; Ballard, Grant ; Barrett, Robert T. ; Barton, Kerry J. ; Bech, Claus ; Becker, Peter ; Berglund, Per-Arvid ; Bollache, Loïc ; Bond, Alexander L. ; Bouwhuis, Sandra ; Bradley, Russell W. ; Burr, Zofia M. ; Camphuysen, Kees ; Catry, Paulo ; Chiaradia, Andre ; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe ; Cuthbert, Richard ; Dehnhard, Nina ; Descamps, Sébastien ; Diamond, Tony ; Divoky, George ; Drummond, Hugh ; Dugger, Katie M. ; Dunn, Michael J. ; Emmerson, Louise ; Erikstad, Kjell Einar ; Fort, Jérôme ; Fraser, William ; Genovart, Meritxell ; Gilg, Olivier ; González-Solís, Jacob ; Granadeiro, José Pedro ; Grémillet, David ; Hansen, Jannik ; Hanssen, Sveinn A. ; Harris, Mike ; Hedd, April ; Hinke, Jefferson ; Igual, José Manuel ; Jahncke, Jaime ; Jones, Ian ; Kappes, Peter J. ; Schmidt, Niels M. / Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds. In: Nature Climate Change. 2018 ; Vol. 8, No. 4. pp. 313-318.

Bibtex

@article{09a0a713704a4fbca2dcab71cda75a66,
title = "Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds",
abstract = "Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity 1 , and is often sensitive to climatic conditions 2 . Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey 3 . This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers 4 . However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction 5 . Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (−0.020 days yr−1) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (−0.272 days °C−1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources 2 .",
author = "Katharine Keogan and Francis Daunt and Sarah Wanless and Phillips, {Richard A.} and Walling, {Craig A.} and Philippa Agnew and Ainley, {David G.} and Tycho Anker-Nilssen and Grant Ballard and Barrett, {Robert T.} and Barton, {Kerry J.} and Claus Bech and Peter Becker and Per-Arvid Berglund and Lo{\"i}c Bollache and Bond, {Alexander L.} and Sandra Bouwhuis and Bradley, {Russell W.} and Burr, {Zofia M.} and Kees Camphuysen and Paulo Catry and Andre Chiaradia and Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard and Richard Cuthbert and Nina Dehnhard and S{\'e}bastien Descamps and Tony Diamond and George Divoky and Hugh Drummond and Dugger, {Katie M.} and Dunn, {Michael J.} and Louise Emmerson and Erikstad, {Kjell Einar} and J{\'e}r{\^o}me Fort and William Fraser and Meritxell Genovart and Olivier Gilg and Jacob Gonz{\'a}lez-Sol{\'i}s and Granadeiro, {Jos{\'e} Pedro} and David Gr{\'e}millet and Jannik Hansen and Hanssen, {Sveinn A.} and Mike Harris and April Hedd and Jefferson Hinke and Igual, {Jos{\'e} Manuel} and Jaime Jahncke and Ian Jones and Kappes, {Peter J.} and Schmidt, {Niels M.}",
year = "2018",
doi = "10.1038/s41558-018-0115-z",
language = "English",
volume = "8",
pages = "313--318",
journal = "Nature Climate Change",
issn = "1758-678X",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds

AU - Keogan, Katharine

AU - Daunt, Francis

AU - Wanless, Sarah

AU - Phillips, Richard A.

AU - Walling, Craig A.

AU - Agnew, Philippa

AU - Ainley, David G.

AU - Anker-Nilssen, Tycho

AU - Ballard, Grant

AU - Barrett, Robert T.

AU - Barton, Kerry J.

AU - Bech, Claus

AU - Becker, Peter

AU - Berglund, Per-Arvid

AU - Bollache, Loïc

AU - Bond, Alexander L.

AU - Bouwhuis, Sandra

AU - Bradley, Russell W.

AU - Burr, Zofia M.

AU - Camphuysen, Kees

AU - Catry, Paulo

AU - Chiaradia, Andre

AU - Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe

AU - Cuthbert, Richard

AU - Dehnhard, Nina

AU - Descamps, Sébastien

AU - Diamond, Tony

AU - Divoky, George

AU - Drummond, Hugh

AU - Dugger, Katie M.

AU - Dunn, Michael J.

AU - Emmerson, Louise

AU - Erikstad, Kjell Einar

AU - Fort, Jérôme

AU - Fraser, William

AU - Genovart, Meritxell

AU - Gilg, Olivier

AU - González-Solís, Jacob

AU - Granadeiro, José Pedro

AU - Grémillet, David

AU - Hansen, Jannik

AU - Hanssen, Sveinn A.

AU - Harris, Mike

AU - Hedd, April

AU - Hinke, Jefferson

AU - Igual, José Manuel

AU - Jahncke, Jaime

AU - Jones, Ian

AU - Kappes, Peter J.

AU - Schmidt, Niels M.

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity 1 , and is often sensitive to climatic conditions 2 . Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey 3 . This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers 4 . However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction 5 . Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (−0.020 days yr−1) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (−0.272 days °C−1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources 2 .

AB - Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity 1 , and is often sensitive to climatic conditions 2 . Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey 3 . This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers 4 . However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction 5 . Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (−0.020 days yr−1) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (−0.272 days °C−1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources 2 .

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-018-0115-z

DO - 10.1038/s41558-018-0115-z

M3 - Journal article

VL - 8

SP - 313

EP - 318

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

SN - 1758-678X

IS - 4

ER -