Future operation of hydropower in Europe under high renewable penetration and climate change

TY - JOUR

T1 - Future operation of hydropower in Europe under high renewable penetration and climate change

AU - Gøtske, Ebbe Kyhl

AU - Victoria, Marta

N1 - © 2021 The Author(s).

PY - 2021/9/24

Y1 - 2021/9/24

N2 - As large renewable capacities penetrate the European energy system and the climate faces significant alterations, the future operation of hydropower reservoirs might deviate from today. In this work, we first analyze the changes in hydropower operation required to balance a wind- and solar-dominated European energy system. Second, we apply runoff data obtained from combining five different global circulation models and two regional climate models to estimate future reservoir inflow at three CO2 emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). This enables us to address the climate model uncertainty reported in previous literature. Despite large interannual and intermodel variability, significant changes are measured in the climate model signal between today and future climate. Annual inflow decreases by 31% (20%) in Southern countries and increases by 21% (14%) in Northern countries for high (mid)-emission scenarios. Projections also show impacts on seasonal profiles and more frequent and prolonged droughts in Mediterranean countries.

AB - As large renewable capacities penetrate the European energy system and the climate faces significant alterations, the future operation of hydropower reservoirs might deviate from today. In this work, we first analyze the changes in hydropower operation required to balance a wind- and solar-dominated European energy system. Second, we apply runoff data obtained from combining five different global circulation models and two regional climate models to estimate future reservoir inflow at three CO2 emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). This enables us to address the climate model uncertainty reported in previous literature. Despite large interannual and intermodel variability, significant changes are measured in the climate model signal between today and future climate. Annual inflow decreases by 31% (20%) in Southern countries and increases by 21% (14%) in Northern countries for high (mid)-emission scenarios. Projections also show impacts on seasonal profiles and more frequent and prolonged droughts in Mediterranean countries.

KW - Energy flexibility

KW - Energy policy

KW - Energy resources

KW - Energy sustainability

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85122795365&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.isci.2021.102999

DO - 10.1016/j.isci.2021.102999

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 34505010

SN - 2589-0042

VL - 24

JO - iScience

JF - iScience

IS - 9

M1 - 102999

ER -