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Final published version
We perform a large-scale empirical study in order to compare the forecasting performances of single-regime and Markov-switching GARCH (MSGARCH) models from a risk management perspective. We find that MSGARCH models yield more accurate Value-at-Risk, expected shortfall, and left-tail distribution forecasts than their single-regime counterparts for daily, weekly, and ten-day equity log-returns. Also, our results indicate that accounting for parameter uncertainty improves the left-tail predictions, independently of the inclusion of the Markov-switching mechanism.
Original language | English |
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Journal | International Journal of Forecasting |
Volume | 34 |
Issue | 4 |
Pages (from-to) | 733-747 |
Number of pages | 15 |
ISSN | 0169-2070 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2018 |
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ID: 127602917