Department of Economics and Business Economics

Economic significance of commodity return forecasts from the fractionally cointegrated VAR model

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  • Sepideh Dolatabadi, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario
  • ,
  • Paresh Kumar Narayan, Deakin University
  • ,
  • Morten Ørregaard Nielsen
  • Ke Xu, Victoria University

We model and forecast commodity spot and futures prices using fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) models generalizing the well-known (non-fractional) CVAR model to accommodate fractional integration. In our empirical analysis to daily data on 17 commodity markets, the fractional model is statistically superior in terms of in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting. We analyze economic significance of the forecasts through dynamic (mean-variance) trading strategies, leading to statistically significant and economically meaningful profits in most markets. We generally find that the fractional model generates higher profits on average, especially in the futures markets.

Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Futures Markets
Volume38
Issue2
Pages (from-to)219-242
Number of pages24
ISSN0270-7314
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2018

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