Department of Economics and Business Economics

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Long-Run Stock Market Volatility and Correlation

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We use Baker, Bloom, and Davis’s (2016) economic policy uncertainty indices in combination with the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) approach to investigate long-run stock market volatility and correlation, primarily for the US and UK. Long-run US–UK stock market correlation depends positively on US economic policy uncertainty shocks. The dependence is asymmetric, with only positive shocks - increasing uncertainty - being of importance. The US long-run stock market volatility depends significantly on US economic policy uncertainty shocks but not on UK shocks, while the UK long-run stock market volatility depends significantly on both. Allowing for US economic policy uncertainty shocks improves the out-of-sample forecasting of US–UK stock market correlation and enhances portfolio performance. Similar results apply to the long-run correlation between the US and Canada, China, and Germany.
Original languageEnglish
Place of publicationAarhus
PublisherInstitut for Økonomi, Aarhus Universitet
Number of pages34
Publication statusPublished - 3 Apr 2018
SeriesCREATES Research Papers
Number2018-12

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