Economic crisis, natural resources, and irregular leader removal in autocracies

TY - JOUR

T1 - Economic crisis, natural resources, and irregular leader removal in autocracies

AU - Krishnarajan, Suthan

PY - 2019/9

Y1 - 2019/9

N2 - Why do autocratic leaders escape revolution, coups, and assassination during times of economic crisis? I argue that the spike in natural resource revenues since the 1960s has increased autocratic crisis resilience. The availability of this alternative revenue stream provides autocratic leaders with a constant inflow of money, increases their ability to repress dissent, and improves their access to international credit. Extending the analysis back to 1875, I show that the relationship between economic crisis and irregular leader removal in autocracies is strong and robust before the 1960s, but disappears in more recent periods. Interaction analyses confirm that the effects of economic crisis are moderated by natural resource income. These findings are robust to an array of alternative specifications, including analyses that address endogeneity concerns via instrumental variable (IV) estimation. A more particular examination of the theoretical mechanisms also supports the argument. These findings challenge widely held beliefs in the literature of a strong, direct effect of economic crisis on autocratic leader survival; they explain why economic crisis seems to destabilize some autocrats, but not others.

AB - Why do autocratic leaders escape revolution, coups, and assassination during times of economic crisis? I argue that the spike in natural resource revenues since the 1960s has increased autocratic crisis resilience. The availability of this alternative revenue stream provides autocratic leaders with a constant inflow of money, increases their ability to repress dissent, and improves their access to international credit. Extending the analysis back to 1875, I show that the relationship between economic crisis and irregular leader removal in autocracies is strong and robust before the 1960s, but disappears in more recent periods. Interaction analyses confirm that the effects of economic crisis are moderated by natural resource income. These findings are robust to an array of alternative specifications, including analyses that address endogeneity concerns via instrumental variable (IV) estimation. A more particular examination of the theoretical mechanisms also supports the argument. These findings challenge widely held beliefs in the literature of a strong, direct effect of economic crisis on autocratic leader survival; they explain why economic crisis seems to destabilize some autocrats, but not others.

KW - AUTHORITARIANISM

KW - CIVIL CONFLICT

KW - COUPS

KW - DEMOCRATIZATION

KW - GROWTH

KW - MOUNTAINS

KW - OIL

KW - PLATEAUS

KW - STABILITY

KW - SURVIVAL

U2 - 10.1093/isq/sqz006

DO - 10.1093/isq/sqz006

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0020-8833

VL - 63

SP - 726

EP - 741

JO - International Studies Quarterly

JF - International Studies Quarterly

IS - 3

ER -