Department of Economics and Business Economics

Does output gap, labour's share or unemployment rate drive inflation?

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaperJournal articleResearchpeer-review

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Does output gap, labour's share or unemployment rate drive inflation? / Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani.

In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 76, No. 5, 2014, p. 715–726.

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaperJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Harvard

Lanne, M & Luoto, J 2014, 'Does output gap, labour's share or unemployment rate drive inflation?', Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 76, no. 5, pp. 715–726. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12041

APA

Lanne, M., & Luoto, J. (2014). Does output gap, labour's share or unemployment rate drive inflation? Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 76(5), 715–726. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12041

CBE

Lanne M, Luoto J. 2014. Does output gap, labour's share or unemployment rate drive inflation?. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 76(5):715–726. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12041

MLA

Lanne, Markku and Jani Luoto. "Does output gap, labour's share or unemployment rate drive inflation?". Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 2014, 76(5). 715–726. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12041

Vancouver

Lanne M, Luoto J. Does output gap, labour's share or unemployment rate drive inflation? Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 2014;76(5):715–726. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12041

Author

Lanne, Markku ; Luoto, Jani. / Does output gap, labour's share or unemployment rate drive inflation?. In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 2014 ; Vol. 76, No. 5. pp. 715–726.

Bibtex

@article{ffd9584308a74612bdc99b654ef70eda,
title = "Does output gap, labour's share or unemployment rate drive inflation?",
abstract = "We propose a new methodology for ranking in probability the commonly proposed drivers of inflation in the new Keynesian model. The approach is based on Bayesian model selection among restricted vector autoregressive (VAR) models, each of which embodies only one or none of the candidate variables as the driver. Simulation experiments suggest that our procedure is superior to the previously used conventional pairwise Granger causality tests in detecting the true driver. Empirical results lend little support to labour share, output gap or unemployment rate as the driver of US inflation.",
author = "Markku Lanne and Jani Luoto",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.1111/obes.12041",
language = "English",
volume = "76",
pages = "715–726",
journal = "Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics",
issn = "0305-9049",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.",
number = "5",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Does output gap, labour's share or unemployment rate drive inflation?

AU - Lanne, Markku

AU - Luoto, Jani

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - We propose a new methodology for ranking in probability the commonly proposed drivers of inflation in the new Keynesian model. The approach is based on Bayesian model selection among restricted vector autoregressive (VAR) models, each of which embodies only one or none of the candidate variables as the driver. Simulation experiments suggest that our procedure is superior to the previously used conventional pairwise Granger causality tests in detecting the true driver. Empirical results lend little support to labour share, output gap or unemployment rate as the driver of US inflation.

AB - We propose a new methodology for ranking in probability the commonly proposed drivers of inflation in the new Keynesian model. The approach is based on Bayesian model selection among restricted vector autoregressive (VAR) models, each of which embodies only one or none of the candidate variables as the driver. Simulation experiments suggest that our procedure is superior to the previously used conventional pairwise Granger causality tests in detecting the true driver. Empirical results lend little support to labour share, output gap or unemployment rate as the driver of US inflation.

U2 - 10.1111/obes.12041

DO - 10.1111/obes.12041

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:84879258706

VL - 76

SP - 715

EP - 726

JO - Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics

JF - Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics

SN - 0305-9049

IS - 5

ER -