Department of Economics and Business Economics

Discussion of the paper “Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics”

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaperComment/debateResearchpeer-review

The article by David Hendry provides a clear and synthetic outline of his methodology for empirical model discovery and theory evaluation in macroeconomics. My discussion stresses the relevance to economic forecasters of one of the main lessons to be drawn from the paper, namely that, although the purpose of model selection is the discovery of a parsimonious, coherent and encompassing representation of the data generating process, selecting models based on past forecasting performances is neither conclusive nor diriment, due to the pervasiveness of structural change. The discussion then focuses on the selection of a suitable set of basis functions for modelling and detecting structural change.

Original languageEnglish
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
Volume34
Issue1
Pages (from-to)136-138
Number of pages3
ISSN0169-2070
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2018

    Research areas

  • Macroeconomic forecasting, Model selection, Structural change

See relations at Aarhus University Citationformats

ID: 121445501