Designing a sector-coupled European energy system robust to 60 years of historical weather data

Ebbe Kyhl Gøtske; Gorm Bruun Andresen; Fabian Neumann; Marta Victoria

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-54853-3

Designing a sector-coupled European energy system robust to 60 years of historical weather data

Ebbe Kyhl Gøtske^*, Gorm Bruun Andresen, Fabian Neumann, Marta Victoria

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Mechanical and Production Engineering - Fluids and Energy
iCLIMATE Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change - iCLIMATE Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Navitas
The Novo Nordisk Foundation CO2 Research Center - CORC - MPE, Katrinebjergvej

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Abstract

As energy systems transform to rely on renewable energy and electrification to mitigate climate change, they encounter stronger year-to-year variability in energy supply and demand. Yet, most infrastructure planning relies on a single weather year, risking a potential lack of robustness. In this paper, we optimize capacity layouts for a European energy system under net-zero CO₂ emissions for 62 different weather years. Subsequently, we fix the layouts and optimize their operation in every other weather year to assess resource adequacy and CO₂ emissions. Our analysis shows a variation of ± 10% in total system costs across weather years. Layouts designed for years with compound weather events prove more robust, achieving resource adequacy of 99.9% and net-negative CO₂ emissions of −0.5% per year relative to 1990 levels. CO₂-emitting backup generation regulated by a CO₂ tax offers a cost-effective measure to enhance robustness. It increases emissions only marginally, keeping average emissions below 1% of 1990 levels over all layouts. Our findings underscore the need for policymakers and energy stakeholders to account for interannual weather variability in future infrastructure planning.

Original language	English
Article number	10680
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	15
Issue	1
ISSN	2041-1723
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54853-3
Publication status	Published - Dec 2024

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title = "Designing a sector-coupled European energy system robust to 60 years of historical weather data",

abstract = "As energy systems transform to rely on renewable energy and electrification to mitigate climate change, they encounter stronger year-to-year variability in energy supply and demand. Yet, most infrastructure planning relies on a single weather year, risking a potential lack of robustness. In this paper, we optimize capacity layouts for a European energy system under net-zero CO2 emissions for 62 different weather years. Subsequently, we fix the layouts and optimize their operation in every other weather year to assess resource adequacy and CO2 emissions. Our analysis shows a variation of ± 10% in total system costs across weather years. Layouts designed for years with compound weather events prove more robust, achieving resource adequacy of 99.9% and net-negative CO2 emissions of −0.5% per year relative to 1990 levels. CO2-emitting backup generation regulated by a CO2 tax offers a cost-effective measure to enhance robustness. It increases emissions only marginally, keeping average emissions below 1% of 1990 levels over all layouts. Our findings underscore the need for policymakers and energy stakeholders to account for interannual weather variability in future infrastructure planning.",

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Designing a sector-coupled European energy system robust to 60 years of historical weather data. / Gøtske, Ebbe Kyhl ; Andresen, Gorm Bruun; Neumann, Fabian et al.
In: Nature Communications, Vol. 15, No. 1, 10680, 12.2024.

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

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PY - 2024/12

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N2 - As energy systems transform to rely on renewable energy and electrification to mitigate climate change, they encounter stronger year-to-year variability in energy supply and demand. Yet, most infrastructure planning relies on a single weather year, risking a potential lack of robustness. In this paper, we optimize capacity layouts for a European energy system under net-zero CO2 emissions for 62 different weather years. Subsequently, we fix the layouts and optimize their operation in every other weather year to assess resource adequacy and CO2 emissions. Our analysis shows a variation of ± 10% in total system costs across weather years. Layouts designed for years with compound weather events prove more robust, achieving resource adequacy of 99.9% and net-negative CO2 emissions of −0.5% per year relative to 1990 levels. CO2-emitting backup generation regulated by a CO2 tax offers a cost-effective measure to enhance robustness. It increases emissions only marginally, keeping average emissions below 1% of 1990 levels over all layouts. Our findings underscore the need for policymakers and energy stakeholders to account for interannual weather variability in future infrastructure planning.

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Designing a sector-coupled European energy system robust to 60 years of historical weather data

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