Department of Economics and Business Economics

Data-Driven Identification Constraints for DSGE Models

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DOI

We propose imposing data-driven identification constraints to alleviate the multimodality problem arising in the estimation of poorly identified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models under non-informative prior distributions. We also devise an iterative procedure based on the posterior density of the parameters for finding these constraints. An empirical application to the Smets and Wouters () model demonstrates the properties of the estimation method, and shows how the problem of multimodal posterior distributions caused by parameter redundancy is eliminated by identification constraints. Out-of-sample forecast comparisons as well as Bayes factors lend support to the constrained model.

Original languageEnglish
JournalOxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Volume80
Issue2
Pages (from-to)236-258
Number of pages23
ISSN0305-9049
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018
Externally publishedYes

    Research areas

  • MONTE-CARLO METHODS, SCORING RULES, PREDICTION, SIMULATION, INFERENCE, POSTERIOR

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