Climatic and biotic velocities for woody taxa distributions over the last 16000 years in eastern North America

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climatic and biotic velocities for woody taxa distributions over the last 16000 years in eastern North America

AU - Ordonez Gloria, Alejandro

AU - Williams, John W.

PY - 2013/6

Y1 - 2013/6

N2 - We estimated the latitudinal velocity (km/decade) of northern and southern boundaries of core distributions for 30 woody taxa over the last 16000years (biotic velocities) using networks of fossil pollen records, and compared these with climate velocities estimated from CCSM3 simulations. Biotic velocities were faster during periods of rapid temperature change (i.e. 16 to 7ka) than times of relative stability (i.e. 7 to 1ka), with a consistent northward movement of northern and southern boundaries. For most taxa, biotic velocities were faster for northern than for southern boundaries between 12 and 7ka, resulting in expanding distributions. For individual time periods, biotic velocities were as fast or faster than climate velocities calculated using multivariate approaches. These results indicate that climate change paced the rate of distribution shifts in both northern and southern populations while suggesting that northern populations were more sensitive. A similar sensitivity and pacing is expected under 21st century climate change.

AB - We estimated the latitudinal velocity (km/decade) of northern and southern boundaries of core distributions for 30 woody taxa over the last 16000years (biotic velocities) using networks of fossil pollen records, and compared these with climate velocities estimated from CCSM3 simulations. Biotic velocities were faster during periods of rapid temperature change (i.e. 16 to 7ka) than times of relative stability (i.e. 7 to 1ka), with a consistent northward movement of northern and southern boundaries. For most taxa, biotic velocities were faster for northern than for southern boundaries between 12 and 7ka, resulting in expanding distributions. For individual time periods, biotic velocities were as fast or faster than climate velocities calculated using multivariate approaches. These results indicate that climate change paced the rate of distribution shifts in both northern and southern populations while suggesting that northern populations were more sensitive. A similar sensitivity and pacing is expected under 21st century climate change.

KW - Biotic velocity

KW - climate change

KW - climate velocity

KW - Holocene

KW - palaeoecology

KW - Pleistocene

KW - pollen

KW - Quaternary

KW - species distributions

KW - SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS

KW - LATE-QUATERNARY

KW - RANGE SHIFTS

KW - TREE MIGRATION

KW - CHANGE IMPACTS

KW - VEGETATION

KW - RECORDS

KW - POLLEN

KW - BIODIVERSITY

KW - PREDICTIONS

U2 - 10.1111/ele.12110

DO - 10.1111/ele.12110

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 23574198

SN - 1461-023X

VL - 16

SP - 773

EP - 781

JO - Ecology Letters

JF - Ecology Letters

IS - 6

ER -