Blood is Thicker than Water: Family Size and Leader Deposition in Medieval and Early Modern Europe

TY - JOUR

T1 - Blood is Thicker than Water:

T2 - Family Size and Leader Deposition in Medieval and Early Modern Europe

AU - Kokkonen, Andrej

AU - Krishnarajan, Suthan

AU - Møller, Jørgen

AU - Sundell, Anders

PY - 2021/10

Y1 - 2021/10

N2 - Are large families a liability or an asset for an autocratic ruler? In this article, we show that in medieval and early modern Europe, relatives protected monarchs from challenges from their elite groups, thus reducing their risk of being deposed. Women reduced the risk of both depositions from outside and from within the family, whereas men primarily reduced the risk of outside depositions (as well as the risk of civil wars breaking out). This is demonstrated in a statistical analysis of 27 European monarchies spanning the time period 1000–1799, which enlists new data on royal offspring, siblings, and paternal uncles and aunts. These findings not only elucidate power dynamics in the medieval and early modern world of dynastic politics but also have implications for present-day authoritarian states where institutions are weak and personal relationships retain their importance.

AB - Are large families a liability or an asset for an autocratic ruler? In this article, we show that in medieval and early modern Europe, relatives protected monarchs from challenges from their elite groups, thus reducing their risk of being deposed. Women reduced the risk of both depositions from outside and from within the family, whereas men primarily reduced the risk of outside depositions (as well as the risk of civil wars breaking out). This is demonstrated in a statistical analysis of 27 European monarchies spanning the time period 1000–1799, which enlists new data on royal offspring, siblings, and paternal uncles and aunts. These findings not only elucidate power dynamics in the medieval and early modern world of dynastic politics but also have implications for present-day authoritarian states where institutions are weak and personal relationships retain their importance.

KW - CONFLICT

KW - DEPENDENCE

KW - POWER

KW - RISE

KW - STABILITY

KW - TIME

KW - authoritarianism

KW - delegation

KW - family

KW - leader survival

KW - monarchy

U2 - 10.1086/715065

DO - 10.1086/715065

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0022-3816

VL - 83

SP - 1246

EP - 1259

JO - The Journal of Politics

JF - The Journal of Politics

IS - 4

ER -