Department of Economics and Business Economics

A FTA-based method for risk decision-making in emergency response

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  • Yang Liu, Northeastern University, China
  • Hongyan Li
Decision-making problems in emergency response are usually risky and uncertain due to the limited decision data and possible evolvement of emergency scenarios. This paper focuses on a risk decisionmaking problem in emergency response with several distinct characteristics including dynamic evolvement process of emergency, multiple scenarios, and impact of response actions on the emergency scenarios. A method based on Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is proposed to solve the problem. By analyzing the evolvement process of emergency, the Fault Tree (FT) is constructed to describe the logical relations among conditions and factors resulting in the evolvement of emergency. Given different feasible response actions, the probabilities of emergency scenarios are estimated by FTA.
Furthermore, the overall ranking value of each action is calculated, and a ranking of feasible response actions is determined. Finally, a case study on H1N1 infectious diseases is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.
Original languageEnglish
JournalComputers & Operations Research
Volume42
Pages (from-to)49-57
Number of pages9
ISSN0305-0548
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

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