Department of Economics and Business Economics

A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support

Research output: Working paperResearch

Standard

A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support. / Jones, Maggie E. C. ; Ørregård Nielsen, Morten; Popiel, Michael Ksawery.

Aarhus : Institut for Økonomi, Aarhus Universitet, 2014.

Research output: Working paperResearch

Harvard

Jones, MEC, Ørregård Nielsen, M & Popiel, MK 2014 'A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support' Institut for Økonomi, Aarhus Universitet, Aarhus.

APA

Jones, M. E. C., Ørregård Nielsen, M., & Popiel, M. K. (2014). A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support. Institut for Økonomi, Aarhus Universitet. CREATES Research Papers, No. 2014-23

CBE

Jones MEC, Ørregård Nielsen M, Popiel MK. 2014. A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support. Aarhus: Institut for Økonomi, Aarhus Universitet.

MLA

Jones, Maggie E. C. , Morten Ørregård Nielsen and Michael Ksawery Popiel A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support. Aarhus: Institut for Økonomi, Aarhus Universitet. (CREATES Research Papers; Journal number 2014-23). 2014., 50 p.

Vancouver

Jones MEC, Ørregård Nielsen M, Popiel MK. A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support. Aarhus: Institut for Økonomi, Aarhus Universitet. 2014 Aug 18.

Author

Jones, Maggie E. C. ; Ørregård Nielsen, Morten ; Popiel, Michael Ksawery. / A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support. Aarhus : Institut for Økonomi, Aarhus Universitet, 2014. (CREATES Research Papers; No. 2014-23).

Bibtex

@techreport{352af63263d749bb873e75bd85667b7e,
title = "A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support",
abstract = "We use a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to examine the relationship between Canadian political support and macroeconomic conditions. This model is well suited for the analysis because it allows multiple fractional time series and admits simple asymptotic inference for the model parameters and tests of the hypotheses of interest. In the long-run equilibrium, we find that support for the Progressive Conservative Party was higher during periods of high interest rates and low unemployment, while support for the Liberal Party was higher during periods of low interest rates and high unemployment. We also test and reject the notion that party support is driven only by relative (to the United States) economic performance. Indeed, our findings suggest that US macroeconomic variables do not enter the long-run equilibrium of Canadian economic voting (political opinion poll support) at all.",
keywords = "Economic voting, fractional cointegration, political economy, vector autoregressive model",
author = "Jones, {Maggie E. C.} and {{\O}rreg{\aa}rd Nielsen}, Morten and Popiel, {Michael Ksawery}",
year = "2014",
month = aug,
day = "18",
language = "English",
series = "CREATES Research Papers",
publisher = "Institut for {\O}konomi, Aarhus Universitet",
number = "2014-23",
type = "WorkingPaper",
institution = "Institut for {\O}konomi, Aarhus Universitet",

}

RIS

TY - UNPB

T1 - A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support

AU - Jones, Maggie E. C.

AU - Ørregård Nielsen, Morten

AU - Popiel, Michael Ksawery

PY - 2014/8/18

Y1 - 2014/8/18

N2 - We use a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to examine the relationship between Canadian political support and macroeconomic conditions. This model is well suited for the analysis because it allows multiple fractional time series and admits simple asymptotic inference for the model parameters and tests of the hypotheses of interest. In the long-run equilibrium, we find that support for the Progressive Conservative Party was higher during periods of high interest rates and low unemployment, while support for the Liberal Party was higher during periods of low interest rates and high unemployment. We also test and reject the notion that party support is driven only by relative (to the United States) economic performance. Indeed, our findings suggest that US macroeconomic variables do not enter the long-run equilibrium of Canadian economic voting (political opinion poll support) at all.

AB - We use a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to examine the relationship between Canadian political support and macroeconomic conditions. This model is well suited for the analysis because it allows multiple fractional time series and admits simple asymptotic inference for the model parameters and tests of the hypotheses of interest. In the long-run equilibrium, we find that support for the Progressive Conservative Party was higher during periods of high interest rates and low unemployment, while support for the Liberal Party was higher during periods of low interest rates and high unemployment. We also test and reject the notion that party support is driven only by relative (to the United States) economic performance. Indeed, our findings suggest that US macroeconomic variables do not enter the long-run equilibrium of Canadian economic voting (political opinion poll support) at all.

KW - Economic voting, fractional cointegration, political economy, vector autoregressive model

M3 - Working paper

T3 - CREATES Research Papers

BT - A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support

PB - Institut for Økonomi, Aarhus Universitet

CY - Aarhus

ER -