A Bayesian approach to assessing uncertainty in the effect of fertilization strategies on paddy rice yield via multiple on-farm experiments

TY - JOUR

T1 - A Bayesian approach to assessing uncertainty in the effect of fertilization strategies on paddy rice yield via multiple on-farm experiments

AU - Mia, Md Suruj

AU - Habibi, Luthfan Nur

AU - Matsui, Tsutomu

AU - Tanaka, Takashi

PY - 2024

Y1 - 2024

N2 - The surge in global agricultural input prices, particularly for nitrogen (N) fertilizers, has presented challenges for farmers facing stagnant crop prices and rising production costs. This study explored a system designed to sustain or enhance farmers’ income while reducing production costs, with a specific focus on implementing practices that involve cultivating crops with lower rates of fertilizer than conventional rates, particularly in smaller land settings, through on-farm experimentation (OFE). OFE was conducted over three years across 11 fields in Gifu, Japan, utilizing a strip trial design to investigate the effect of fertilizer input rates on rice yield. To collect yield data, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-mounted multispectral cameras were deployed. A Gaussian process model was used to address the impact of fertilizer input rates on yield while accounting for spatial yield variation. The study further assessed the number of field trials achieving positive profits at certain probability levels by integrating outcomes from multiple OFEs. The results highlighted little rice yield response to fertilizer input in most of the fields, while several fields showed significant positive yield responses. Notably, the use of lower fertilizer input rates in certain fields proved to be more profitable whereas higher fertilizer input rates were less profitable in most fields. The results further emphasized the economic viability of lower rates, especially when fertilizer prices are high, thus contributing valuable insights for sustainable and profitable rice production in Japanese cultivation.

AB - The surge in global agricultural input prices, particularly for nitrogen (N) fertilizers, has presented challenges for farmers facing stagnant crop prices and rising production costs. This study explored a system designed to sustain or enhance farmers’ income while reducing production costs, with a specific focus on implementing practices that involve cultivating crops with lower rates of fertilizer than conventional rates, particularly in smaller land settings, through on-farm experimentation (OFE). OFE was conducted over three years across 11 fields in Gifu, Japan, utilizing a strip trial design to investigate the effect of fertilizer input rates on rice yield. To collect yield data, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-mounted multispectral cameras were deployed. A Gaussian process model was used to address the impact of fertilizer input rates on yield while accounting for spatial yield variation. The study further assessed the number of field trials achieving positive profits at certain probability levels by integrating outcomes from multiple OFEs. The results highlighted little rice yield response to fertilizer input in most of the fields, while several fields showed significant positive yield responses. Notably, the use of lower fertilizer input rates in certain fields proved to be more profitable whereas higher fertilizer input rates were less profitable in most fields. The results further emphasized the economic viability of lower rates, especially when fertilizer prices are high, thus contributing valuable insights for sustainable and profitable rice production in Japanese cultivation.

KW - Reduced fertilizer rate

KW - small field

KW - strip trial

KW - UAV

KW - revenue analysis

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85196083439&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1080/1343943X.2024.2367578

DO - 10.1080/1343943X.2024.2367578

M3 - Journal article

SN - 1343-943X

VL - 27

SP - 197

EP - 211

JO - Plant Production Science

JF - Plant Production Science

IS - 3

ER -