30% land conservation and climate action reduces tropical extinction risk by more than 50%

Lee Hannah; Patrick R. Roehrdanz; Pablo A. Marquet; Brian J. Enquist; Guy Midgley; Wendy Foden; Jon C. Lovett; Richard T. Corlett; Derek Corcoran; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Brad Boyle; Xiao Feng; Brian Maitner; Javier Fajardo; Brian J. McGill; Cory Merow; Naia Morueta-Holme; Erica A. Newman; Daniel S. Park; Niels Raes; Jens Christian Svenning

doi:10.1111/ecog.05166

30% land conservation and climate action reduces tropical extinction risk by more than 50%

Lee Hannah
, Patrick R. Roehrdanz^*
, Pablo A. Marquet
, Brian J. Enquist
, Guy Midgley
, Wendy Foden
, Jon C. Lovett
, Richard T. Corlett
, Derek Corcoran
, Stuart H.M. Butchart
, Brad Boyle
, Xiao Feng
, Brian Maitner
, Javier Fajardo
, Brian J. McGill
, Cory Merow
, Naia Morueta-Holme
, Erica A. Newman
, Daniel S. Park
, Niels Raes

Jens Christian Svenning

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Biology - Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

119 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Limiting climate change to less than 2°C is the focus of international policy under the climate convention (UNFCCC), and is essential to preventing extinctions, a focus of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The post-2020 biodiversity framework drafted by the CBD proposes conserving 30% of both land and oceans by 2030. However, the combined impact on extinction risk of species from limiting climate change and increasing the extent of protected and conserved areas has not been assessed. Here we create conservation spatial plans to minimize extinction risk in the tropics using data on 289 219 species and modeling two future greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) while varying the extent of terrestrial protected land and conserved areas from <17% to 50%. We find that limiting climate change to 2°C and conserving 30% of terrestrial area could more than halve aggregate extinction risk compared with uncontrolled climate change and no increase in conserved area.

Original language	English
Journal	Ecography
Volume	43
Issue	7
Pages (from-to)	943-953
Number of pages	11
ISSN	0906-7590
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05166
Publication status	Published - Jul 2020

Keywords

area-based conservation
biodiversity
climate change
conservation planning
extinction risk

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Hannah, L., Roehrdanz, P. R., Marquet, P. A., Enquist, B. J., Midgley, G., Foden, W., Lovett, J. C., Corlett, R. T., Corcoran, D., Butchart, S. H. M., Boyle, B., Feng, X., Maitner, B., Fajardo, J., McGill, B. J., Merow, C., Morueta-Holme, N., Newman, E. A., Park, D. S., ... Svenning, J. C. (2020). 30% land conservation and climate action reduces tropical extinction risk by more than 50%. Ecography, 43(7), 943-953. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05166

@article{665b502896544007a7af63b653ce50c4,

title = "30\% land conservation and climate action reduces tropical extinction risk by more than 50\%",

abstract = "Limiting climate change to less than 2°C is the focus of international policy under the climate convention (UNFCCC), and is essential to preventing extinctions, a focus of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The post-2020 biodiversity framework drafted by the CBD proposes conserving 30\% of both land and oceans by 2030. However, the combined impact on extinction risk of species from limiting climate change and increasing the extent of protected and conserved areas has not been assessed. Here we create conservation spatial plans to minimize extinction risk in the tropics using data on 289 219 species and modeling two future greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) while varying the extent of terrestrial protected land and conserved areas from <17\% to 50\%. We find that limiting climate change to 2°C and conserving 30\% of terrestrial area could more than halve aggregate extinction risk compared with uncontrolled climate change and no increase in conserved area.",

keywords = "area-based conservation, biodiversity, climate change, conservation planning, extinction risk",

author = "Lee Hannah and Roehrdanz, \{Patrick R.\} and Marquet, \{Pablo A.\} and Enquist, \{Brian J.\} and Guy Midgley and Wendy Foden and Lovett, \{Jon C.\} and Corlett, \{Richard T.\} and Derek Corcoran and Butchart, \{Stuart H.M.\} and Brad Boyle and Xiao Feng and Brian Maitner and Javier Fajardo and McGill, \{Brian J.\} and Cory Merow and Naia Morueta-Holme and Newman, \{Erica A.\} and Park, \{Daniel S.\} and Niels Raes and Svenning, \{Jens Christian\}",

year = "2020",

month = jul,

doi = "10.1111/ecog.05166",

language = "English",

volume = "43",

pages = "943--953",

journal = "Ecography",

issn = "0906-7590",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd",

number = "7",

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Hannah, L, Roehrdanz, PR, Marquet, PA, Enquist, BJ, Midgley, G, Foden, W, Lovett, JC, Corlett, RT, Corcoran, D, Butchart, SHM, Boyle, B, Feng, X, Maitner, B, Fajardo, J, McGill, BJ, Merow, C, Morueta-Holme, N, Newman, EA, Park, DS, Raes, N & Svenning, JC 2020, '30% land conservation and climate action reduces tropical extinction risk by more than 50%', Ecography, vol. 43, no. 7, pp. 943-953. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05166

TY - JOUR

T1 - 30% land conservation and climate action reduces tropical extinction risk by more than 50%

AU - Hannah, Lee

AU - Roehrdanz, Patrick R.

AU - Marquet, Pablo A.

AU - Enquist, Brian J.

AU - Midgley, Guy

AU - Foden, Wendy

AU - Lovett, Jon C.

AU - Corlett, Richard T.

AU - Corcoran, Derek

AU - Butchart, Stuart H.M.

AU - Boyle, Brad

AU - Feng, Xiao

AU - Maitner, Brian

AU - Fajardo, Javier

AU - McGill, Brian J.

AU - Merow, Cory

AU - Morueta-Holme, Naia

AU - Newman, Erica A.

AU - Park, Daniel S.

AU - Raes, Niels

AU - Svenning, Jens Christian

PY - 2020/7

Y1 - 2020/7

N2 - Limiting climate change to less than 2°C is the focus of international policy under the climate convention (UNFCCC), and is essential to preventing extinctions, a focus of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The post-2020 biodiversity framework drafted by the CBD proposes conserving 30% of both land and oceans by 2030. However, the combined impact on extinction risk of species from limiting climate change and increasing the extent of protected and conserved areas has not been assessed. Here we create conservation spatial plans to minimize extinction risk in the tropics using data on 289 219 species and modeling two future greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) while varying the extent of terrestrial protected land and conserved areas from <17% to 50%. We find that limiting climate change to 2°C and conserving 30% of terrestrial area could more than halve aggregate extinction risk compared with uncontrolled climate change and no increase in conserved area.

AB - Limiting climate change to less than 2°C is the focus of international policy under the climate convention (UNFCCC), and is essential to preventing extinctions, a focus of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The post-2020 biodiversity framework drafted by the CBD proposes conserving 30% of both land and oceans by 2030. However, the combined impact on extinction risk of species from limiting climate change and increasing the extent of protected and conserved areas has not been assessed. Here we create conservation spatial plans to minimize extinction risk in the tropics using data on 289 219 species and modeling two future greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) while varying the extent of terrestrial protected land and conserved areas from <17% to 50%. We find that limiting climate change to 2°C and conserving 30% of terrestrial area could more than halve aggregate extinction risk compared with uncontrolled climate change and no increase in conserved area.

KW - area-based conservation

KW - biodiversity

KW - climate change

KW - conservation planning

KW - extinction risk

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85085565586

U2 - 10.1111/ecog.05166

DO - 10.1111/ecog.05166

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85085565586

SN - 0906-7590

VL - 43

SP - 943

EP - 953

JO - Ecography

JF - Ecography

IS - 7

ER -

30% land conservation and climate action reduces tropical extinction risk by more than 50%

Abstract

Keywords

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