Suthan Krishnarajan

The Two-Sided Effect of Elections on Coup Attempts

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The Two-Sided Effect of Elections on Coup Attempts. / Krishnarajan, Suthan; Roerbaek, Lasse Lykke.

In: Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 64, No. 7-8, 08.2020, p. 1279-1306.

Research output: Contribution to journal/Conference contribution in journal/Contribution to newspaper › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Vancouver

Krishnarajan S, Roerbaek LL. The Two-Sided Effect of Elections on Coup Attempts. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 2020 Aug;64(7-8):1279-1306. doi: 10.1177/0022002719900001

Author

Krishnarajan, Suthan ; Roerbaek, Lasse Lykke. / The Two-Sided Effect of Elections on Coup Attempts. In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. 2020 ; Vol. 64, No. 7-8. pp. 1279-1306.

Bibtex

@article{83532f56fb9b4936a45403d21d89ea16,

title = "The Two-Sided Effect of Elections on Coup Attempts",

abstract = "In this article, we investigate the relationship between elections and coup attempts. We argue that elections have opposing effects on the risk of coup attempts, depending on the state of the economy in which they are held. Elections occurring in conditions of economic crisis spur anti-government mobilization and high levels of state repression. This increases the subsequent risk of coup attempts. Conversely, elections held during economic expansion induce pro-government mobilization and waning repression, which reduces the subsequent risk of coups. We find strong support for these propositions in a statistical analysis of 130 countries that conducted contested elections in the period 1952 to 2013. The results are robust to an array of model specifications, including when we account for election outcome, postelection economic performance, and the possibility that both elections and economic performance are endogenous to coup attempts.",

keywords = "coup attempts, economic crisis, elections, protest, state repression, VIOLENCE, IMPACT, INSTITUTIONS, HUMAN-RIGHTS, MILITARY-INTERVENTION",

author = "Suthan Krishnarajan and Roerbaek, {Lasse Lykke}",

year = "2020",

month = aug,

doi = "10.1177/0022002719900001",

language = "English",

volume = "64",

pages = "1279--1306",

journal = "Journal of Conflict Resolution",

issn = "0022-0027",

publisher = ": SAGE Publications ",

number = "7-8",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The Two-Sided Effect of Elections on Coup Attempts

AU - Krishnarajan, Suthan

AU - Roerbaek, Lasse Lykke

PY - 2020/8

Y1 - 2020/8

N2 - In this article, we investigate the relationship between elections and coup attempts. We argue that elections have opposing effects on the risk of coup attempts, depending on the state of the economy in which they are held. Elections occurring in conditions of economic crisis spur anti-government mobilization and high levels of state repression. This increases the subsequent risk of coup attempts. Conversely, elections held during economic expansion induce pro-government mobilization and waning repression, which reduces the subsequent risk of coups. We find strong support for these propositions in a statistical analysis of 130 countries that conducted contested elections in the period 1952 to 2013. The results are robust to an array of model specifications, including when we account for election outcome, postelection economic performance, and the possibility that both elections and economic performance are endogenous to coup attempts.

AB - In this article, we investigate the relationship between elections and coup attempts. We argue that elections have opposing effects on the risk of coup attempts, depending on the state of the economy in which they are held. Elections occurring in conditions of economic crisis spur anti-government mobilization and high levels of state repression. This increases the subsequent risk of coup attempts. Conversely, elections held during economic expansion induce pro-government mobilization and waning repression, which reduces the subsequent risk of coups. We find strong support for these propositions in a statistical analysis of 130 countries that conducted contested elections in the period 1952 to 2013. The results are robust to an array of model specifications, including when we account for election outcome, postelection economic performance, and the possibility that both elections and economic performance are endogenous to coup attempts.

KW - coup attempts

KW - economic crisis

KW - elections

KW - protest

KW - state repression

KW - VIOLENCE

KW - IMPACT

KW - INSTITUTIONS

KW - HUMAN-RIGHTS

KW - MILITARY-INTERVENTION

U2 - 10.1177/0022002719900001

DO - 10.1177/0022002719900001

M3 - Journal article

VL - 64

SP - 1279

EP - 1306

JO - Journal of Conflict Resolution

JF - Journal of Conflict Resolution

SN - 0022-0027

IS - 7-8

ER -

Department of Political Science