Department of Management

René Rohrbeck

Foresighting new technological systems using simulation - application on e-mobility

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperResearchpeer-review

  • Felix Spangenberg, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany
  • Dietmar Göhlich, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany
  • René Rohrbeck
Recently the inadequacy of planning and forecasting techniques for innovations with high levels of uncertainty has become a subject of intense research. In this paper a stochastic approach is presented which integrates uncertainty in a foresight methodology based on multi-dimensional quantitative key performance indicators (KPIs). A Monte Carlo Simulations delivers the prognoses of the KPIs based on a system model and stochastic input parameters.
The new foresight methodology is applied to identify the best future electric bus system for the city of Berlin which will be realized within the e-mobility showcase program of the German federal government.
The methodology is evaluated by expert interviews regarding its value added, limitations and the applicability in other use cases.
Original languageEnglish
Publication year2013
Number of pages14
Publication statusPublished - 2013
Event6th ISPIM Symposium - Melbourne Convention Center, Melbourne, Australia
Duration: 8 Dec 201311 Dec 2013


Conference6th ISPIM Symposium
LocationMelbourne Convention Center

    Research areas

  • Foresight, Simulation, Technology valuation, e-mobility

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