Mikael Skou Andersen

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

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  • Ulas Im
  • Jørgen Brandt
  • Camilla Geels
  • Kaj Mantzius Hansen
  • Jesper Heile Christensen
  • Mikael Skou Andersen
  • Efisio Solazzo, European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra
  • ,
  • Ioannis Kioutsioukis, University of Patras
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  • Ummugulsum Alyuz, Istanbul Technical University
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  • Alessandra Balzarini, Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico (RSE SpA)
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  • Rocio Baro, Universidad de Murcia
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  • Roberto Bellasio, Enviroware Srl
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  • Roberto Bianconi, Enviroware Srl
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  • Johannes Bieser, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht - Zentrum für Material- und Küstenforschung GmbH
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  • Augustin Colette, INERIS Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques
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  • Gabriele Curci, Universita degli Studi dell'Aquila
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  • Aidan Farrow, University of Hertfordshire
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  • Johannes Flemming, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
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  • Andrea Fraser, Gemini Building
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  • Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero, Universidad de Murcia
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  • Nutthida Kitwiroon, King's College London
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  • Ciao Kai Liang, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Department of Genetics, Chapel Hill, United States
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  • Uarporn Nopmongcol, Ramboll Environ
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  • Guido Pirovano, Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico (RSE SpA)
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  • Luca Pozzoli, European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Istanbul Technical University
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  • Marje Prank, Finnish Meteorological Institute - FMI, Cornell University
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  • Rebecca Rose, Gemini Building
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  • Ranjeet Sokhi, University of Hertfordshire
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  • Paolo Tuccella, Universita degli Studi dell'Aquila
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  • Alper Unal, Istanbul Technical University
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  • Marta Garcia Vivanco, INERIS Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques, CIEMAT
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  • Jason West, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Department of Genetics, Chapel Hill, United States
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  • Greg Yarwood, Ramboll Environ
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  • Christian Hogrefe, United States Environmental Protection Agency
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  • Stefano Galmarini, European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra

The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). The modeled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs from each individual model. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20% anthropogenic emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and east Asia, as defined by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2). Health impacts estimated by using concentration inputs from different chemistry-transport models (CTMs) to the EVA system can vary up to a factor of 3 in Europe (12 models) and the United States (3 models). In Europe, the multi-model mean total number of premature deaths (acute and chronic) is calculated to be 414000, while in the US, it is estimated to be 160000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. The economic valuation of these health impacts is calculated to be EUR300billion and 145billion in Europe and the US, respectively. A subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step against an all-model mean ensemble results in increase of health impacts by up to 30% in Europe, while in the US, the optimal ensemble mean led to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by ∼ 11%. A total of 54000 and 27500 premature deaths can be avoided by a 20% reduction of global anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the US, respectively. A 20% reduction of North American anthropogenic emissions avoids a total of ∼ 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25000 total premature deaths in the US. A 20% decrease of anthropogenic emissions within the European source region avoids a total of 47000 premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the east Asian anthropogenic emissions by 20% avoids ∼ 2000 total premature deaths in the US. These results show that the domestic anthropogenic emissions make the largest impacts on premature deaths on a continental scale, while foreign sources make a minor contribution to adverse impacts of air pollution.

Original languageEnglish
JournalAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Volume18
Issue8
Pages (from-to)5967-5989
Number of pages23
ISSN1680-7316
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 27 Apr 2018

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